Iran’s Oil Infrastructure Faces Potential Collapse
During a recent segment on Fox News, President Donald Trump claimed that Iran’s oil infrastructure is on the verge of significant failure, which he believes could occur within the next three days. He pointed out that this looming crisis is a direct result of a U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively hindering Iran’s ability to export oil, their main resource.
Although Iranian facilities are still producing oil, the inability to transport it has resulted in an overwhelming surplus. This situation is putting tremendous strain on the country’s internal storage and pipeline operations.
“When you have vast quantities of oil flowing through your system, and suddenly that flow is disrupted—you can’t ship it out—what happens is that line explodes from within,” Trump explained.
The president warned that if this breakdown occurs, Iran will face extensive challenges in repairing its infrastructure, alongside other lingering issues that could arise.
“When it explodes, you can never fully rebuild it. They say they have about three days left before this happens,” Trump noted.
Some analysts have suggested that Iran might have to shut down its oil fields as early as April 29, which could have long-term repercussions on crude production.
“Rebuilding is difficult; even if it’s restored, it will only be about 50% of its previous capacity,” Trump added, indicating that Iran is under significant pressure.
Tehran’s onshore storage is quickly filling up as they divert oil there, given the stoppage of exports.
“When you have to stop production because there’s no more room to store oil—either in ships or tanks—something very bad will occur,” Trump cautioned. He reiterated that the blockade has cut off shipping options, leading to this precarious situation.
According to fuel analysts from the Critical Threats Project and Energy Aspects, Iran’s available storage is expected to run out soon. Annika Ganzeveld, a Middle East portfolio manager, pointed out that if the tanks reach capacity, Iran would have to halt its oil fields, risking long-term damage.
A sudden and prolonged shutdown of oil production facilities complicates efforts to restart operations. Technical difficulties often arise, such as reservoir damage and equipment issues, which can impede restoring output once the fields are reopened.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently mentioned that the storage at Kharg Island, which accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil distribution, will be full in a matter of days, leading to a shutdown.
To handle the immediate oil surplus, analysts speculate that Iran might reduce production levels further this month or use their fleet of tankers for temporary storage. Nonetheless, these strategies offer only a short-term solution for a country currently producing around 2 million barrels per day.
Estimates from the energy consultancy FGE suggest that Iran has around seven weeks before their storage capacity is maxed out, forcing a total production halt.
