2026 NBA mock draft: Revision following college basketball entry deadline with updated lottery odds

April 28, 2026

2026 NBA Draft Class: Lottery Odds and Prospects

The anticipation surrounding the 2026 NBA Draft class has been building up for quite some time. The draft lottery is set for May 10th, and the odds for the teams have just been announced.

The Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and Indiana Pacers are tied for the highest chance at 14 percent for the top overall pick. Following them, the Jazz and Sacramento Kings each hold an 11.5 percent chance. The Memphis Grizzlies are next with a 9 percent likelihood of snagging the first pick. Interestingly, the Atlanta Hawks, due to a beneficial trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, possess a 6.8 percent chance, plus an additional 3 percent chance from a rights swap with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Dallas Mavericks come in at 6.7 percent, while the Chicago Bulls have a 4.5 percent shot. The Golden State Warriors have a 2 percent chance, and the Thunder (1.5% from the Clippers), Heat (1%), and Hornets (0.5%) round out the draft lottery odds.

This particular draft class has already seen some notable talent opt for NIL deals instead. Players like Braylon Mullins from UW, Patrick Gomba from Duke, Thomas Ho from Florida, Motijas Krivas from Arizona, and Tunde Yesufu from Baylor were all expected to be first-round picks previously but chose to return to school. Surprisingly, Yesufu is the only one still considering entering the draft.

The exciting part about this draft class is that you don’t necessarily need the top pick to find a future franchise player. Aiming for a spot in the top four could suffice. Here’s the latest mock draft for 2026 based on the lottery standings.

Draft Predictions Based on Lottery Odds

I think any team in the lottery would be thrilled to finish in the top four, which shows just how strong this draft class is. Here are the latest odds for each lottery team to secure a top four pick.

Caleb Wilson: A Rising Star

Caleb Wilson didn’t represent North Carolina in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, having broken his left hand in February and his right thumb in March. Nonetheless, interest from the NBA remains high. Some reports even suggest teams may value Wilson higher than Duke forward Cameron Boozer, and he might even be a candidate for a top-two pick on draft night.

Wilson, at 6’10”, showcases incredible athleticism and has impressive stats — 67 dunks in just 24 games. He’s a strong defender with passing skills and a nice mid-range shot, but he needs to improve his 3-point shooting and ball-handling. His current skill set makes him an exciting player on offense and a crucial defensive asset right off the bat.

I’ve always thought Boozer was the best in his class, and indeed, he outperformed Wilson during previous seasons. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson in the top three of the draft. Teams like the Bulls, Warriors, and Bucks would benefit greatly from a high draft position, especially if they manage to secure Boozer or Wilson.

Impact of Early Entries on Draft Stocks

Some players like Braylon Mullins and Patrick Gomba, who were considered lottery talents, have opted to return to school. Thomas Ho is another name once deemed a potential lottery pick, but he’s making a return to Florida for a lucrative NIL deal. The landscape can shift quickly, especially with early entries like Tyler Tanner and Allen Graves, who could surprise everyone by entering the draft instead of returning to school.

A complete list of early entries is anticipated soon, with the deadline to withdraw set for June 13th, just days before the draft.

Michigan Stars in the Lottery

The journey for the Wolverines has been exciting as they aimed for a national championship. While I suspect Elliott Caddo might head back to school, it seems Morez Johnson will be joining Aday Mara and Jaxel Lendeborg in the draft this year.

My coverage of Jaxel Lendeborg during March Madness highlighted his rise as a lottery candidate, and we discussed his feedback from last year’s NBA combine and his view of the professional transition.
Similarly, Aday Mara has made significant strides since his time on the bench at UCLA, making him a strong candidate for the draft.
It’s noteworthy that Morez Johnson, who stayed local for his high school career, could also be drafted, potentially reuniting with Mara in Chicago.