Recent polling suggests that in a potential 2028 Democratic primary face-off, former Vice President Kamala Harris has an edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom, and the results don’t favor Newsom at all.
According to a recent Harvard Harris poll involving 2,745 registered voters, 50% backed Harris as the Democratic nominee for 2028, while only 22% opted for Newsom. Also in the mix are Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (9%), Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker (6%). An additional 5% chose “someone else.”
Interestingly, Pete Buttigieg, who’s often considered a prominent figure in the party, didn’t even make the cut.
Harris has a solid lead among various demographics. For instance, among white Democrats, she surpasses Newsom with a 15-point margin (41 to 26 percent). The gap widens with black voters, where she stands at 71 to 15 percent, while among Hispanic voters it’s 50 to 23 percent, and for Asians, 50 to 12 percent.
In a broader perspective, RealClearPolitics highlights that Harris holds an average approval rating of 28 percent, compared to Newsom’s 18.7 percent. While a nine-point lead might seem close, it’s still considerable.
Moreover, looking at the same poll from a month ago, Harris led Newsom by just 15 points (41-26). Over that time, Newsom has seemed to lose ground; he dropped four points while Harris gained nine.
Back in January, in a similar poll, Newsom was trailing by only nine points (39-30%). This steady decline suggests dwindling support for a governor whose record has left many unsatisfied.
So, what has caused this shift away from Newsom?
I think it might relate to the Democratic primary voters’ awareness of his poor performance in California. Under his leadership, many aspects of the state have worsened, which could pose problems for him against likely Republican candidate J.D. Vance in the general election.
But here’s the kicker: why is Kamala Harris, who has previously run for the presidency and not succeeded, still in the picture?
Her lead reflects a weakened bench in the Democratic party. Candidates over 50, like Harris and Newsom, appear to have a better shot in a general election because younger contenders, such as Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez, are often seen as too far left to win.
The name that stands out is Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania. He seems capable of being a strong contender against Vance, but there’s significant bias within the party that may hinder his chances, as it struggles with anti-Semitism.
It is disheartening that the Democratic Party’s best chance at reclaiming the White House hinges on a candidate who has already faced defeat.
