The AUD/USD pair saw an increase of roughly 0.3% on Wednesday. It steadily rose during the day, hitting a peak close to the recent cycle high before settling a bit lower, still in the profit zone. Price movements throughout the session began with the Asian markets and continued to New York, followed by a pullback from the day’s high.
Finance Minister Jim Chalmers unveiled Australia’s federal budget for 2026/27 on Tuesday. The effective cash deficit is projected at A$31.5 billion, showing slight improvement from previous estimates. Notable budget measures included the elimination of negative gearing, plans to replace capital gains tax discounts with indexation, and an A$10 billion package for fuel security in response to supply shocks tied to Iran, though this package has since been discarded. The first-quarter wage price index was reported at 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with expected figures. Annual growth has slowed a bit but still remains elevated. The upcoming Consumer Inflation Expectations Survey from the Melbourne Institute on Thursday is anticipated to be a key focus for the country.
In the U.S., the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April surpassed expectations, with a month-to-month jump of 1.4%, compared to a forecast of 0.5%, and an annual increase of 6.0%—well above the expected 4.9%. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI also grew by 0.3% month-over-month, matching predictions. The dollar surged following these favorable figures, although a partial recovery followed after initial volatility. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to shape the broader economic landscape. The Strait of Hormuz effectively remains closed, energy prices globally are high, and U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran’s ceasefire offer have been less than conciliatory. Retail sales and new jobless claims data set to release Thursday will likely provide more insight for the dollar.
AUD/USD 15 minute chart
Currently, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7258, having opened at 0.7240, and it’s showing a moderately bullish trend. Despite the Stochastic RSI reading near 9.54, this suggests there’s intraday buying interest, reflecting a highly oversold condition which could limit any near-term decline, possibly favoring a short-term rebound.
Looking downwards, the initial support matches the day’s opening level at 0.7240. Buyers here are expected to defend their gains. There isn’t any significant technical resistance evident from moving averages or other structures in this timeframe, so the next upside challenge for the pair may only emerge if the price ascends, heavily dependent on reactions around that support zone.
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD remains at 0.7258, displaying a positive near-term outlook as the price holds well above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) of 0.7150, supporting a broader uptrend. The Stochastic RSI near 63 still leans bullish without indicating overbought conditions, suggesting there’s some upward momentum yet to extend.
For support, the initial focus is at approximately 0.7258, acting as an immediate intraday pivot, while stronger demand surfaces around the 200-period EMA at 0.7150. This provides a buffer for buyers to maintain the broader positive structure. Since there’s no immediate technical resistance visible, maintaining levels above these supports should keep the momentum favoring upward movements.
