A key Republican ally of Democrats in the U.S. Senate faces the potential of being ousted by primary voters in Louisiana on Saturday night, a stark turn in the decade-long effort to impeach former President Donald Trump.
In an unexpected twist, Republican Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment, which followed the January 6, 2021, unrest at the Capitol. Cassidy, one of only three Republican senators to support conviction, now stands on uncertain ground as Louisiana voters have the chance to remove him, with Trump backing Rep. Julia Letlow in a three-way primary that also includes former state treasurer John Fleming. If none of the candidates secures 50% of the vote, a runoff will ensue—something that looks quite probable given the tight race, with polls showing all three candidates neck and neck.
If Cassidy ends up losing either now or in a subsequent runoff, it would mark the first time in 14 years that an incumbent Republican senator has been defeated in a primary. The last Republican senator to face this kind of loss was Dick Lugar of Indiana, who was defeated by Richard Murdoch. Although Mike Lee of Utah managed to unseat incumbent Bob Bennett, he did so at a convention rather than a primary, highlighting how rare it is for an incumbent Republican senator to be ousted in such a manner.
Cassidy isn’t alone in facing challenges from outside conservatives this election cycle. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton seems to be gaining ground against incumbent Senator John Cornyn as the Republican primary runoff approaches.
Voting in Louisiana is set to close at 9pm ET, and updates will be provided as results come in.
Updated at 10:10pm ET:
Decision Desk Headquarters forecasts that Sen. Cassidy is likely to lose his re-election bid, with Letlow and Fleming projected to advance to a runoff.
Updated at 10:05pm ET:
Cassidy’s political future looks increasingly bleak. As of now, 60% of the votes are reported, showing Cassidy trailing by over 4 percentage points and more than 8,000 votes. It would take a remarkable turnaround for him to change this trend, making a loss increasingly probable.
Updated at 10:02pm ET:
Things are tough for Cassidy; he only leads in East Baton Rouge Parish, which includes the state capital. With 52% of the votes counted, he’s now more than 3 percentage points behind for a potential runoff, trailing by over 5,000 votes—definitely a tough spot for a sitting U.S. senator.
Updated at 9:50pm ET:
As results come in, the Times reports 40%, showing Letlow with a strong lead at 42.4%. Fleming is in second place with 29.1%, while Cassidy is third at 26.3%, trailing close behind.
Updated at 9:42pm ET:
With 25% now reported, Cassidy’s situation seems to worsen, as Letlow leads with 43.9% and Fleming holds 30.4%. Cassidy is far behind, managing only 23.6%.
Updated at 9:16pm ET:
Early returns look grim for Cassidy. With just 15% reporting, he finds himself in a deep third place at 24.2%. Letlow is significantly ahead at 45.2%, and Fleming is doing better at 28.1%. Cassidy has quite the uphill battle ahead.
