Recent polling indicates that Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass’ once-comfortable lead has significantly decreased, resulting in a competitive race against City Council member Nitya Raman and former reality TV personality Spencer Pratt.
According to a public opinion survey conducted between May 19 and 24 by the Institute for Governmental Research at UC Berkeley, in partnership with the Los Angeles Times, Bass currently holds 26% of the vote. Raman follows closely with 25%, while Pratt captures 22%.
The Times reported that Bass’ narrow lead is “statistically insignificant,” according to the pollster’s analysis. Notably, earlier polls showed a much broader gap between Bass and her challengers, but that has since diminished. Raman and Pratt are both gaining traction as they campaign.
Out of 1,913 registered voters surveyed, only 10% indicated that they were undecided regarding the June 2 primary, a decrease from 26% in March. Analysts predict that Bass is still likely to secure enough votes to advance to a runoff against either Raman or Pratt in November.
When asked about top concerns, supporters of Pratt consistently emphasized their interest in addressing issues like waste, political corruption, crime, and public safety.
Supporters for both Raman and Plat echoed similar sentiments but prioritized different issues, focusing on immigrant protection, housing for homeless individuals, and the necessity for more affordable housing.
In a direct matchup between Bass and Pratt, the survey found Bass leading by 18 points, with 12% of respondents still undecided and another 12% choosing not to vote. There seems to be a likely runoff between Raman and Pratt, where Raman is reported to have 45% support compared to Pratt’s 28%, leaving 16% undecided and 11% opting out of participation.
Although the mayoral race is officially nonpartisan, it’s noteworthy that Pratt, registered as a Republican, is campaigning in areas where less than 15% of the population identifies as such.
“We have three candidates, each with distinct platforms and voter bases, all operating within the margin of error. Ultimately, the outcome hinges on voter turnout,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll. “Pratt’s an unconventional candidate, creating a lot of buzz in the primary, though he’s trailing behind both Raman and Bass by a significant margin in potential runoff scenarios.”
