Armenia’s Election Outcome
On Monday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced victory for himself and his Civil Contract Party, despite a surprisingly close contest against several pro-Russian parties and alliances.
He described this moment as a “historic victory” that would not only ensure Armenia’s stability but also foster long-lasting peace. He made this declaration during a press conference.
Pashinyan’s party secured 50.1% of the vote, based on about 91% of ballots counted by Monday. In contrast, pro-Russian factions, including Armenia and the Armenian Union, lagged behind with 23.4% and 9.8% of the votes, respectively.
The leader of Strong Armenia, Samber Karapetyan, is a billionaire noted for his significant business ventures in Russia. He holds dual citizenship in Armenia and Russia.
Karapetyan faced legal troubles in June 2025, being charged with attempting to subvert Pashinyan’s administration amid tensions between the prime minister and Catholicos Karekin II of the Armenian Apostolic Church.
Pashinyan has openly sought to diminish the church’s political power and replace Karekin. He previously accused Karekin of breaching his vows and called for his resignation, even threatening actions against corrupt clerics.
In response, Karapetyan pledged loyalty to the church and warned of intervening against political actions aimed at it should politicians fail. He has since been under house arrest.
Last week, new arrest warrants were issued for Strong Armenia members related to allegations of vote-buying during the election.
While the final vote count exceeded Civil Contract’s expectations, it was still short of a 70% parliamentary majority that Pashinyan hoped to achieve for constitutional reforms.
This election was perceived as a gauge of Pashinyan’s strategy to distance Armenia from its long-standing ties with Russia, especially as conflicts with Azerbaijan have persisted since 2020.
Russia has shifted from trying to maintain Armenian loyalty to employing more coercive measures, recently imposing trade restrictions on Armenian goods. Following Pashinyan’s victory announcement, Moscow tightened such restrictions, affecting various exports including Armenia’s notable products like mineral water and fish.
Pashinyan remarked that he aims to seek alternative markets for Armenia’s exports and intends to strengthen ties with the United States and the European Union. His electoral success received prompt congratulations from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Von der Leyen emphasized that the spirit of the Velvet Revolution from 2018 remains strong, which had previously led to the ousting of Armenia’s pro-Russian government.
Zelenskiy hailed the election as a triumph for Armenia’s sovereignty and independence, urging the EU to expedite Armenia’s integration process.
Concerns were raised regarding external interference in the election, particularly from Russia, as pressures were reported to manipulate the results. A member from the Council of Europe expressed strong disapproval of this interference.
Pashinyan also expressed hope that his significant win would foster more favorable relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, which remains a challenging aspect of his agenda involving peace efforts with neighboring countries.
Azerbaijan has stated that it will only continue peace negotiations if Armenia revises its constitution to eliminate what Azerbaijan interprets as a claim to the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Armenia counters that its constitution does not explicitly reference this issue but instead notes their declaration of independence from the Soviet Union, although this argument hasn’t swayed Azerbaijan’s position.
Despite lingering uncertainties regarding constitutional amendments, Pashinyan’s victory grants him enough support to continue a shift away from Russian influence, align more closely with the West, and work toward enhancing Armenia’s presence in the international arena.
As he moves forward, Pashinyan faces challenges, including the sentiments of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, skepticism regarding Turkey as a peace partner, and the aftermath of military conflicts with Azerbaijan.
Karapetyan’s campaign produced controversial AI-generated videos suggesting that the peace initiatives Pashinyan sought would result in an influx of Azerbaijanis into Armenia, which did not resonate well with many voters.
Ultimately, many Armenians appear to lean towards moving forward, having accepted the reality of past conflicts. Some have noted that the previous taboo against normalizing relations with Turkey has diminished, and there’s a growing awareness of the situation with Azerbaijan.
