Market Update for June 9th
On Tuesday, the US dollar (USD) slipped from a two-month peak, settling at approximately 99.85 during early trading in Europe. This shift follows a reduction in hostilities in the Middle East. Traders are now looking ahead to the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report on Wednesday, along with Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday, as they seek further insights into the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate decisions.
Currently, there’s about a 43.2% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, a noticeable rise from roughly 14% just a month prior, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool.
USD Price Today
The US dollar is showing a weaker performance against other major currencies today, especially the New Zealand dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | australian dollar | new zealand dollar | swiss franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.18% | -0.03% | -0.12% | -0.19% | -0.47% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.07% | 0.09% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.35% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.08% | -0.02% | -0.27% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.09% | -0.15% | -0.09% | -0.16% | -0.44% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.12% | 0.02% | -0.08% | 0.09% | -0.07% | -0.33% | 0.00% | |
| australian dollar | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.16% | 0.07% | -0.26% | 0.07% | |
| new zealand dollar | 0.47% | 0.35% | 0.27% | 0.44% | 0.33% | 0.26% | 0.33% | |
| swiss franc | 0.13% | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.33% |
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump mentioned that he might come up with an Iran deal proposal in the coming days. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the conflict involving Iran and Hezbollah is far from resolved, although both groups are reportedly at their weakest.
Iran has declared a pause in military actions against Israel, yet Central Command warned that if Israel persists with its assaults, there would be “much harsher and more overwhelming actions” taken in response.
In trade news, China’s trade surplus jumped to $105.43 billion in May, which is an increase from $84.82 billion in April. This was fueled by a 19.4% year-on-year rise in exports, outpacing the anticipated 15% increase, and a 27.4% rise in imports, also exceeding expectations.
In Germany, industrial production showed an uptick for the first time since the beginning of the Iran conflict, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in April, as reported by Destatis. This follows a slight decline in March and aligns with market expectations, although annualized production reflected a drop of 0.5%.
Currency Updates
Euro/USD
In Europe, the euro gained some strength, approaching the 1.1550 mark. The European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly three years during the upcoming June meeting.
GBP/USD
The British pound saw a rebound, crossing above 1.3350, after hitting a three-week low.
USD/JPY
This pair remained relatively stable around 160.15 in early European trading, as market participants kept an eye on potential currency interventions from Japanese authorities, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterating their readiness to act decisively.
Gold
On Tuesday, gold prices saw a slight rise, reaching about $4,340. However, the yellow metal has lingered close to its lowest levels since late March, which can be attributed to uncertainties in the Middle East and rising speculation of a US interest rate increase.
