Almost 300 individuals who have tested positive for Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remain unaccounted for, according to a leading public health official in Africa.
Dr. Jean Kaseya, director general of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, noted that the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region has led to over 1 million people residing in inaccessible camps. This situation complicates the work of health workers, who are unable to reach those in need.
His remarks coincided with the World Health Organization’s Africa regional office projections, which estimate that by mid-September, there could be around 8,210 cases and 1,420 deaths.
The modeling also indicated a 70% likelihood that the outbreak could spread to neighboring South Sudan in the upcoming weeks.
Currently, there have been 1,118 confirmed cases and 291 deaths reported in the DRC, along with 20 cases and two fatalities in Uganda.
On Wednesday, it was reported that a doctor returning from the DRC had tested positive for Ebola. The NGO Alima, which employed the doctor, expressed their efforts to understand how the exposure occurred.
At present, nearly 300 people who tested positive are missing, raising concerns among officials. “Where are these people?” Kaseya questioned.
The DRC authorities announced that individuals coming from affected provinces must wait 21 days before traveling elsewhere.
This outbreak, linked to the Bundibugyo strain of the virus, is now the largest recorded, occurring five weeks after its declaration. For context, the West Africa outbreak from 2014 to 2016, which infected over 28,000 and resulted in more than 11,000 deaths, saw only 239 cases and 160 deaths at a similar stage.
The WHO has utilized computer models to simulate the outbreak’s potential progression under varying levels of transmissibility.
There are indications that the response efforts in the DRC might be effective in curbing the spread, with current figures aligning more closely with a central scenario suggesting between 6,636 and 10,287 cases by September 16. However, the worst-case scenario anticipates as many as 66,000 confirmed cases by that time.
Kaseya pointed out that 30% of new cases are among contacts of confirmed cases, highlighting significant community transmission. To bolster contact tracing efforts, authorities plan to enlist 20,000 community health workers from local areas.
Ebola treatment centres are currently operating at 95% capacity, with Kaseya stating that the peak has yet to come.
He expressed concern regarding the camps housing displaced individuals, noting that they have reported cases, but without access to these locations, contact tracing is nearly impossible. “We cannot stop this outbreak without addressing the humanitarian issue,” he emphasized.
Kaseya mentioned that tackling the outbreak would require $518 million for health needs alone, with the total estimated to rise to $1.4 billion when including humanitarian necessities.
So far, only about 13% of the $910 million pledged by international governments and organizations has been delivered.
Next week, the first trial of treatments for the Bundibugyo virus is set to begin in the DRC, followed by a trial of an antiviral aimed at preventing the disease in contacts a week later.
