GOP leader McConnell enters new year with questions over future

After a roller coaster year, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will enter 2024 facing new questions about his future at the top of the Republican conference. .

Over the past year, he has battled health issues, challenges from the right and former President Trump, who is once again the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination.

Mr. McConnell has long faced questions about when his record-breaking tenure as leader will end, but never more so than in the past year.

Although he easily repelled attempts by conservatives to unseat him, the mere existence of a first challenge to his leadership suggests difficulties and coincides with a shift to the right and growing dissatisfaction among his group of MPs. did.

Perhaps more worrying were questions about his health. McConnell was sidelined last year with a concussion and broken ribs, sparking speculation about his future, which was further intensified after he nearly cowered in front of reporters twice over the summer. .

Several Senate Republicans and officials have told The Hill in recent months that as Mr. McConnell recovers, questions about his health and ability to remain in post have both dissipated. He said it helps him maintain strong control in meetings.

“He's a recognized leader. He's still a strategist looking at the long game, and he's still the guy who's putting the strategy in front of us right now. That hasn't changed,” said Sen. Mike Rounds. RS.D.) said. “What I see is a leader standing at the top.”

One Senate Republican said that if a leadership contest had been held last month, Mr. McConnell's support would be on par with last year, when 11 senators backed a challenge from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida). I predicted it would be deafening.

But what McConnell will choose next remains a big question, and his colleagues' predictions are mixed.

A Senate Republican told The Hill on condition of anonymity that he believes 2024 will be McConnell's last administration.

“I think it depends on how many sunrises and sunsets he has seen and how active a politician he has been,” the member said.

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) said he would be “surprised” if Mr. McConnell ran again and brought up past conversations “about how he wants to leave.” [the] meeting. ”

“Personally, I would be surprised if he ran for leadership again,” Mullin said. “But I'll tell you, if he decides to run, I don't think anyone will challenge him or beat him.”

Given McConnell's rocky relationship with President Trump and his longstanding relationship with President Biden, some believe that McConnell's plans may depend on who wins the presidential election in November. be.

“Who's the president?” Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., told reporters in November when asked if McConnell would seek another term as party leader.

McConnell and his team are well known for playing their cards close to the vest, and this situation is no different. He insists he intends to serve next year as party leader for the remainder of his Senate term (until 2026), but declines to dig deeper.

“Anyone who says they know is kidding,” said one senior Senate Republican aide.

As the Senate looks ahead to a tough start to the year, the conversation is “To do it or not to do it?” Lawmakers will try to pass a border deal and rush funding to the government to lift $111 billion in subsidies and aid to Ukraine in Biden's war with Russia.

Mr. McConnell is one of the leading supporters of Ukraine in the Senate, but he has angered some conservatives by withdrawing from promoting Ukraine after implementing the Ukraine policy after failing to collect funds for a stopgap spending bill in September. received some praise at the conference. A border agreement would be the only solution.

“I think this suggests that Mitch heard the meeting pretty loudly and clearly,” said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio).

A move to pass a border deal is likely to come at the start of the Republican presidential primary, where Trump is the overwhelming favorite to become the party's nominee for the third time, and there is no love between the two. That could be a problem for McConnell, because it's not lost on him.

The blow came just as the Senate was leaving town, when McConnell shot the former president after Trump told his supporters that immigrants were “tainting the blood of our country.” Ta.

Some lawmakers say the chances of Trump winning the White House again and the chances of Senate Republicans remaining in the minority could be more than enough to convince McConnell to step down from leadership. He points out.

“I feel like I've spent the last few years of my life [years] I will take on those who will become my enemies—” Kramer cut him off before he could finish his thought. “I don’t know what Mitch’s tolerance for misery is.”

But some lawmakers believe McConnell's approach to the former president will remain the same. An anonymous Senate Republican said McConnell is “not at all worried about Trump” and “unfazed” by the former president's criticism.

But President Trump's influence is in another sense, especially as the makeup of the chamber shifts from people of McConnell's ilk to people with sympathetic views more similar to the former president. It has become a headache for many. Mr. Vance, an ardent supporter of Mr. Trump, is a case in point, replacing former Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who was part of Mr. McConnell's leadership team before Mr. McConnell left office. .

Despite questions over McConnell's future, there has been little activity in finding a replacement for him.

At the conference level and in the 2024 political landscape, the senators say Senate Minority Leader John Thune (R.S.D.), Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas); He said there was some movement going on among the “Three Johns” (Texas). John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) — It didn't come out of nowhere. All three are seen as allies of Mr. McConnell, but each has his own strengths when it comes to competing for the top spot.

“Nobody's openly challenging it…nobody's going after it. Nobody's trying to undermine him,” Mullin said of the situation, with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) ), comparing the situation to a years-long battle that has simmered in the House of Representatives as his team remained on guard against the machinations of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. R-ra. ).

“There was always a little bit of a feud between McCarthy and Scalise. There's nothing like that between McConnell and Thune,” said Mullin, a friend of McCarthy and also the freshman class representative on Thune's whip team. Ta.

But for at least the next year, the conference will have a strong relationship with Kentucky Republicans, as it has since the mid-2000s.

“I don't think there was anything wrong with him in the first place,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), the only senator to have served longer than Mr. McConnell. “And I haven't seen any difference in the 17 years since he's been in that position.”