Democrats fear electoral bloodbath in North Carolina

House Democrats fighting to flip control of Congress next year will first have to overcome an expected disaster in North Carolina, where Republicans are almost certain to secure new maps with a red wave in November. ing.

Republican lawmakers in the state Legislature approved a redistricting plan in October, paving the way for Republicans to win at least three, and likely four, seats in the 14-member legislative delegation. This alone would double the number of seats held by Republicans in the narrow House of Representatives. Majority on Capitol Hill.

This new line will push more Democratic voters into some blue districts, while splitting several others, where Democratic voters vastly outnumber Republicans, and where incumbents The chances of any MP retaining his or her current seat are virtually zero.

The impact has been rapid and pronounced, with three Democrats, Rep. Kathy Manning, Rep. Jeff Jackson, and Rep. Wiley Nickel, all announcing their retirement at the end of this term in recent weeks, while a fourth Democratic lawmaker, Rep. One U.S. Rep. Don Davis faces even tougher headwinds in his bid for re-election.

Democratic leadership races to regain House majority in November despite President Biden's significantly lower approval ratings and Republican focus on inflation and border security proving effective The mathematical problems facing the department are complicated by these developments.

Democrats blame political gerrymandering for the North Carolina upheaval, but argue the retiring lawmakers had no choice.

“There's no question in my mind that the way they drew these maps made it impossible for all three of us Democrats to win this seat again,” Manning said.

Manning won the Greensboro-based district by nine points in 2022, but the new line lumps most of Greensboro and 10 rural counties west to the Tennessee border. The result, she said, was a 26-point swing that she couldn't overcome.

“We looked at the map every way to see if there was a way to win, but we can’t overcome a 16-point advantage,” she said.

For North Carolina, a lopsided delegation is not a reflection of the state's politics. The Tar Heel State is a true battleground. almost even number registered Democrats (43%) and Republicans (41%). And that division is reflected in the current delegation, with Republicans currently holding seven of the 14 House seats and Democrats holding seven.

That symmetry was ensured by the state Supreme Court's Democratic majority ahead of the 2022 election, when the justices broke a map drawn by Republican state legislators that heavily favored Republicans.

Since then, Republicans have gained control of the state Supreme Court. And in a rare move this year, a new Republican majority revisited an earlier lawsuit, overturned an earlier ruling and gave Republican lawmakers the power to adopt a voter ID law and take effect in 2024 with new maps.

Supporters of the decision hailed it as a commonsense ruling that ensures voters' voices are heard through their elected state representatives.

North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore (R) said the court “has ensured that our Constitution and the will of the people of North Carolina will be respected.” State Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger (R) also accused the former court of subverting democracy for specific policy purposes.

“Plaintiffs and activist courts have been manipulating the Constitution for years to achieve policy outcomes that cannot be won at the ballot box,” Berger said at the time. “Today's ruling confirms that our Constitution cannot be misused to suit the political whims of left-wing Democrats.”

Opponents of North Carolina's redistricting, including civil rights groups, voting rights advocates and Democrats, accuse Republicans of abusing their power to silence voters and say they see something more sinister. .

“The results of all these elections are essentially predetermined by the state legislatures that drew the maps,” said Jackson, who is currently running for state attorney general.

“I don't know if voters still fully understand the amount of power that has been taken out of their hands and how much all these elections have been basically predetermined for the rest of the decade. .”

Manning echoed similar criticism, accusing Republicans of playing naked power politics.

“What's so shameful is when a court reverses a case that it decided earlier on the same facts, the same law, and says, 'Oh, we were wrong.'” Mandaring is OK,” she said. “Obviously, the only thing that has changed is the political composition, the parties, the composition of the judges.”

Manning noted that North Carolina's redistricting efforts extend far beyond the state. The battle over the majority of the state Supreme Court has attracted attention. and millions of dollars — from interest groups across the country last year. And it had caught the attention of Republican leaders on Capitol Hill.

“I've only spoken once before. [former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)], I asked him what he wanted to be in, and he looked at me and said, “We want three seats in North Carolina.” It couldn't have been any clearer,” Manning said, referring to the former chairman. “And he won't understand it, because he'll be gone. But that's what they get as a result of gerrymandering: 7 and 7 if the map was drawn fairly. Three seats in North Carolina that will be held.

Redistricting has sparked a series of federal lawsuits questioning the legality of the new boundaries, the latest filed Tuesday by the state Republican Party and Common Cause, which accuses the state Republican Party of weakening the voices of Black voters. Ta. However, these cases are unlikely to be resolved in time to impact the current cycle.

Of course, the overall impact on the 2024 election outcome remains to be seen. Republicans currently hold a slim three-seat advantage in the House, which is subject to contested votes. Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, 74 seats listed These are contested constituencies to some extent, of which 25 are “crowded” constituencies representing the most vulnerable members of Congress. Currently, 15 of these seats are held by Republicans and 10 are held by Democrats.

Given these numbers, many Democrats believe the House majority is likely to flip, and the party is pinning its expected losses in North Carolina to states like California, New York and even Alabama. They claim they will make up for it with state profits.

“You can still win seats in other states,” said Rep. Deborah Ross of North Carolina, whose district became safer for Democrats after Republican redistricting. “If we win these lawsuits, and I think we should, we'll see the benefits in 2026. But I still believe the House has a lot of opportunity for redemption in 2024. There is.”

Manning, for example, said he would “absolutely” run again if a federal court threw out the new maps for the 2026 cycle.

Meanwhile, those kicked out by this process are snapping a few photos of themselves on their way out the door.

“I don't think it's ethically defensible to use redistricting to favor one political party or the other,” Jackson said. “This seems like an act as ethically obvious as robbing a bank. The only people who can protect it are the people involved in it.”

Mychael Schnell contributed to this report.