Two of the best in the NBA will face off on Tuesday night as the Boston Celtics travel to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder in an interconference matchup.
These two have a combined record of 46 wins and 15 losses.
The Celts are two games behind Milwaukee in the East, while the Thunder are 1.5 games behind Minnesota in the West.
The Celtics are the best team in the NBA, but they haven't had a great record on the road.
Celtics vs. Thunder odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
| celtics | -4 (-110) | -170 | o240(-110) |
| Thunder | +4 (-110) | +143 | u240 (-110) |
Celtics vs. Thunder predictions
(8 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Oklahoma, NBC Boston, League Pass)
The Celtics are 26-6 this year, but 16-0 at home.
Away from the comfort of TD Garden, the Celtics are 10-6 straight up (SU), 6-8-2 against the spread (ATS) and 5-8-2 ATS when scoring points. .
They have an incredible +14.2 net rating in Boston, including a wild 124.2 offensive rating, both of which are tops in the NBA.
On the road, that mark drops to +6.7. The Celtics are down by 7 points per 100 possessions on the road offensively.
Playing on the road in the NBA is tough, and home road splits are often ignored when handicapping. But the Boston divide is so vast that it's okay for Celts to disappear every time they hop on a bus.
That's especially true against a Thunder team where SU is 13-5 in Oklahoma City and 13-5 ATS. Offensively, they score six points more per 100 possessions at home.
The big picture of this game is Boston's perimeter-based offense versus Oklahoma City's perimeter defense.
It's no secret that Boston loves locking up and boasts the league's best 3-point percentage (43.9%).
But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the NBA's best two-way point guards, and his estimated defensive plus-minus of +3.7 ranks second among NBA players.
He is the captain of a defense that ranks 9th in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage (36.2%), 11th in open 3-point percentage (21%) and 1st in defensive turnover rate (16%). .
The Thunder will be able to compete on the perimeter with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and others, and should be able to last 48 minutes in this game.
I also think Boston's offense is a little overrated at this point.
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The Celtics have an impressive offensive rating of 127 over their last 10 games, but other teams like the Spurs, Pistons, Raptors and Kings have lackluster defenses.
The Celtics' offense could fall apart Tuesday night against Oklahoma City due to the competitive and physical intensity of the game.
I'm a little worried about how the Thunder's offense will turn out. Oklahoma City is a rim-based offense, and the Celtics boast the NBA's best rim defense (1.16 PPP allowed).
However, when the two sides met in January 2023, the Thunder won by 33 points but dropped 150 points.
In fact, the Thunder have covered five straight games against the Celtics, winning outright twice as double-digit “Dogs.”
At the very least, the Thunder's defense in good matchups will take advantage of the Celtics' offense, which is much weaker away from Boston.
Our Action Network's internal projections have the Celtics as only 2-point road favorites against the Thunder, giving us solid betting value at Thunder +4 (-110) on Caesars.
Also, Gilgeous-Alexander might be the best player on the floor Tuesday night. He is averaging 31 points, six assists, and three steals per night. He's a guy I'm willing to bet on.
Celtics vs. Thunder picks
Play to Thunder +4.5 (-115) | +4 (-110) at BetMGM
