Democrats worry about backlash over Trump ballot bans

A decision that would remove former President Trump from the vote in two states risks backfiring for President Biden and his party.

Prominent Democrats in elected office, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and influential commentators like David Axelrod are also mindful of this danger and are weighing in on the effort. expressing resistance.

“There is no question that Donald Trump is a threat to our freedoms and even our democracy,” Newsom said in a statement days after the first of two Colorado Supreme Court decisions was announced. No,” he said. “But in California, we defeated the candidate at the polls.”

Appearing on CNN following the second decision by Maine Secretary of State Shena Bellows, Axelrod said: I think the country would be torn apart if he was actually prevented from running because tens of millions of people want to vote for him. ”

The constitutional issue is whether the 14th Amendment disqualifies Trump from running for re-election.

This modification dates back to the Civil War era. Article 3 prohibits anyone who has “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” from holding public office in violation of the Constitution unless a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress grants an exception.

The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that President Trump's behavior surrounding the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot was egregious enough to warrant disqualification. This decision was announced on December 19th. Nine days later, Bellows issued a similar decision in Maine.

These two decisions were immediately controversial for obvious reasons.

The Colorado Supreme Court divided the verdict 4-3, even though all seven justices were appointed by the Centennial state's Democratic governor. The state's Republican Party has already appealed to the Supreme Court seeking intervention, and President Trump is expected to file an appeal soon.

Regarding Maine, President Trump on Tuesday appealed Bellows' decision to the state's high court, arguing that the secretary of state failed to follow due process, was “biased,” and did not have an “appropriate time to consider the federal constitutional issues” at issue. He claimed that he lacked legal authority. .

The legal debate surrounding this amendment revolves around several important issues.

They include whether the amendment was intended to target the office of president, whether disqualification would be allowed even if the person had not been convicted in a court of law, and whether the amendment was originally designed to prevent a Confederate from becoming president. This includes whether it is legitimate to extend the intended provisions to the present day. Immediately after the Civil War.

Alan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, argued that the answers to key questions support disqualification.

For example, he said, the authors of the amendment “didn't intend for this to just apply to the Confederacy. Otherwise they wouldn't have called it a constitutional amendment.” Discussion indicates that this was intended to protect the republic in perpetuity, not just in the aftermath of the rebellion. ”

A small number of conservative voters have made similar arguments, including two members of the conservative Federalist Society, who published a paper last summer arguing that Trump should indeed be disqualified.

Conversely, some of President Trump's critics object to this application of the 14th Amendment. Bill Barr, who served as Trump's attorney general but has since become an outspoken critic, wrote in a Tuesday op-ed in the Free Press that efforts to remove the former president from ballots are “legally unsustainable.” I can't do it,'' he insisted.

Democrats seeking to distance themselves from the decision tend to be more concerned about the potential electoral implications than the finer points of the constitutional debate.

They worry that efforts to keep Trump from voting mirror too neatly the former president's claims that he is being unfairly targeted.

They are similar to four incidents in which Mr. Trump was criminally charged last year. In both cases, Republican voters rallied behind Trump, increasing his chances of winning the party's nomination.

As of Tuesday afternoon, an average of national polls compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk Headquarters had Mr. Trump leading the Republican candidate by 52 points.

“It's likely to increase anger and turnout among Trump and the MAGA community,” Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkoff said. “They will see this as part of an ongoing conspiracy to prevent Donald Trump from becoming president of the United States.”

The decisions in Colorado and Maine drew celebration from grassroots Democrats and Trump critics, especially online. But Scheinkopf argued that excluding votes is “not a wise strategy,” adding: “If people think this is a good thing for Joe Biden, they're out of their minds.”

The danger is simple. Voters, including not only die-hard Trump supporters but also some independents, are likely to rebel against efforts to remove leading candidates for the Republican nomination from the ballot. They may be more likely to vote for him after all.

This is the outcome that the Trump campaign really wants.

Two top officials from Trump's re-election campaign released a memo on Tuesday regarding the current state of the campaign.

Seeing that the indictment failed to overthrow President Trump, Chris Lacivita and Susie Wiles argue that Democrats have “launched an unconstitutional effort to remove President Trump from the ballot, thereby denying voters the ability to decide the election.” I was robbed of the opportunity to do so.”

If that argument resonates beyond MAGA grounds, it could cause difficulties for Biden.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.