As the new year begins and the NFL season begins to wind down, we're shifting our focus to NBA action on PrizePicks.
With 12 games scheduled in the NBA, Wednesday is a packed schedule.
Let's start 2024 on a positive note.
Jaylen Green made over 2.5 3-point shots.
Fantasy NBA is completely different from other major sports.
Compared to other professional leagues, this league has the highest number of player injuries and absences.
When one player sits, teammates are often thrust into much different roles. If a site doesn't adapt to these unique circumstances of his one game, you may find bad numbers across the industry.
Adam Silver has done his best to clamp down on “injury management,” but he still sees players sitting out on a regular basis.
However, Dillon Brooks suffered a real injury on Wednesday and will miss the Houston and Brooklyn games. This puts Jaylen Green in a great position.
Green has had ceiling games in the past when he's been able to dominate the ball, and Wednesday should be another occasion like that.
Matchup-wise, Brooklyn doesn't play particularly fast, but the Nets rank just 24th in defensive rating this season.
According to the RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool, green usage has increased by a whopping 6.8% this season without Brooks on the court. He should have a chance to be the alpha scorer on Wednesday, as he often was last season.
Without Brooks, Green is averaging 5.9 points, 1.5 more 3-pointers, and 3.3 more 3-point attempts per 36 minutes. I like all of these numbers for Green vs. the Nets, but 3-point shooting and over 19.5 points are two of my favorites.
Lauri Markkanen 22.5 points or more
The biggest problem with targeting Jazz players is that the teams aren't very good. Can these guys take minutes?
Utah State is finally playing good basketball, winning five of its last six games.
Fortunately for Utah, Detroit is on Wednesday's schedule and the Jazz are 8.5-point favorites.
I think it's a good opportunity to allocate full playing time to key players who normally wouldn't get too excited in the fourth quarter even in a big loss.
Markkanen has exceeded that number, playing at least 34 minutes in nine of 11 games. And in that 10-game sample, he faced stout defenses like Cleveland, Denver, Minnesota, Memphis, Phoenix (twice), and the LA Clippers. All of these teams rank in the top half of the NBA in defensive rating.
Isn't it shocking that Detroit isn't in the top half of the league in defensive rating? In fact, the Pistons rank 26th in defensive rating and 6th in pace.
Markkanen, playing time and matchups. Checkmate.
Anthony Edwards less than 28.5 points
The Minnesota star has been using a mini-heater for the past 10 days, but that number is just a little too high. Edwards is averaging 26.3 points per game this season. This number must be inflated due to his ferocious play, as the matchup is not good.
There has been a lot of drama and speculation surrounding Zion Williamson and the Pelicans this season, but one thing has been consistently positive for New Orleans.
defense.
There aren't many defenses in the NBA, but at least the Pels are trying. They rank seventh overall in defensive rating this season and second in the past 10 games.
Do you want to bet on the NBA?
They have a ton of length, and defensive great Herbert Jones is sure to pick up the primary duties with Edwards on Wednesday.
The game total is currently listed at 222.5. A few years ago, this game would have been a treasure trove of fantasy. But with each season, defensive ratings continue to decline and scoring becomes much easier.
This will be considered a low scoring game in 2023. This is the third-lowest total in Wednesday's 12 games. I miss basketball from the 1990s and early 2000s.
Good luck and cash out the winners!
