Last week's strong rebound in USD/JPY confirms a near-term bottom at 140.25 as the 4th hour MACD is in bullish convergence conditions. Nevertheless, the price movement from there is likely only correcting the decline from 151.89. Further upside cannot be ruled out, but the upside should be limited by the 61.8% retracement from 151.89 to 140.25 to 147.44. On the downside, minor support below 143.17 will shift the bias back to the downside to retest the 140.25 low.
Looking at the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the correction pattern from 151.89. Further decline to 140.25 targets the 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 to 136.63. A sustained break there would pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, a firm break of the Fibonacci resistance at 147.44 would weaken this view and instead result in a retest of 151.89.
In the long-term outlook, the uptrend from 75.56 (2011 low) could continue to 151.93 (2022 high) at a later stage, as long as the resistance at 125.85 turns into support (2015 high) gender remains high.
