Imagine betting on a prop that didn't have a shot.
A bizarre betting market was released on DraftKings earlier this week that allowed you to bet on a player to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl, even if the team was eliminated four weeks ago, causing quite a stir on social media. .
Being innovative in this industry is what moves sportsbooks forward, but sometimes innovation doesn't work.
In this case, you are hoping that the team of the player you bet on will make it to the Super Bowl, and you may be able to get closing line value (CLV) in early February.
However, if a player misses an important match, the bet is still an action and will be assessed as a loss and your money will be donated to the gambling giant.
For example, if you bet on Jahmil Gibbs for the Lions to lose in the wild card round against the Rams and score a touchdown (11/1), your bet will be evaluated as a loss.
Most bets will go like this.
Initially, the market did not even state that all bets were actions.
To see the stipulation that all bets are action, we first had to add that stipulation to the bet slip to see the fine print.
X user Neil Greenberg called the market “predatory” in an article. betting market post.
Shortly after 4for4Football's Connor Allen first posted the market on social media, DraftKings changed the wording and added “All bets are actions” directly below the actual market.
“It's insane when you could just bet the money line of each game for your team to go to the Super Bowl for better money.” @MillyMakerSZN I commented on X.
What caught bettors' attention was Najee Harris' touchdown in the 35-1 opening Super Bowl. That's especially bad considering the Steelers are 45-1 away from a Super Bowl appearance.
This may have been a mistake, as DraftKings has since changed the odds to 90/1.
However, there are other scary examples in this gambling market.
Another thing to note is that Ronnie Bell went 14/1 and scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
The 49ers are -125 away from making the Super Bowl, and Bell's average TD scorer prop odds were +1888.89. past 9 games seasonal.
He caught just six passes this season.
That line should be at least around 30/1, and could be even higher considering he was 45/1 on his only reception for a touchdown against the Rams just last week.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
This betting market is essentially a competition for a team to win its next three games (win the conference) and for that player to score a touchdown.
It's not easy to predict the odds, but here are some examples you can use to find the true value of these props if the matchup is pending.
- Christian McCaffrey: 49ers to win conference championship (-125) + expected TD scorer odds (-200?)
- Tony Pollard: Cowboys to win conference championship (+340) + expected TD scorer odds (-110?)
- Ronnie Bell: 49ers win conference championship (-125) + TD scorer predicted odds (+15/1?)
Using the projections above, McCaffrey's true odds would be a fair value of about +176, regardless of how the bracket changes, while Pollard's odds would be about +740. Using the above formula, Bells would be +2780.
These are subject to change due to upsets, matchups, etc., but either way, momentum on these lines is very high and bettors have made their feelings known.
It would be better to have your team win each playoff game, roll over your winnings, and bet on the player of your choice to score a touchdown on February 11th.
