Connecticut was strong throughout its non-conference schedule and showed an ability to adapt without Donovan Clingan. Zach Eady, Purdue's dominant big man, appears to have the potential to lead Virginia, losing to a No. 16 seed one year but winning it all the next season.
These two teams are probably the safest bet to reach the Final Four in Glendale, Arizona. Another team that doesn't get talked about a lot is North Carolina State.
The most disappointing team in the country last year was the first to miss the tournament since the field was expanded to 64 in 1985, although it started the season ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press preseason poll. The team has shown the potential to advance to the finals. group standing.
While other contenders struggled or lost games to lower teams, no one expected it — seven top-10 teams lost in the last week, making the top-10 9-10; While the loss was to an unranked team — Hubert Davis' seventh — the ranked Tar Heels have been surprisingly consistent. They are good defensively, have good balance and show a maturity that is hard to miss. During these six-game winning streak, North Carolina State has outscored its opponents by an average of 21.1 points. They decimated Syracuse by 36 on Saturday.
RJ Davis, a White Plains native who played for Archbishop Stepinac, is one of the best guards in the country, averaging 20.4 points, 3.3 assists and shooting 41 percent from 3-point range. Armando Bacot has averaged a double-double for three consecutive seasons. Transfers Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) made an immediate impact on both ends of the floor. They are joined by five-star freshman point guard Elliott Cadeau.
But the big difference between this year's version and last year's disappointing version is defense. The Tar Heels rank fifth in defensive efficiency, a significant improvement from 46th a year ago. Opponents are shooting just 28.9 percent from 3-point range and 39.5 percent from the field overall. Both numbers are in the top 30 nationally. North Carolina's rebound margin is also plus-6.3.
Even after adding Ingram, Ryan, and Cado in addition to Davis and Bacot, offense has never been an issue for this Tar Heel. They weren't an elite defensive team early in the season, but have shown notable improvement recently.
Still, North Carolina State gets little attention despite holding the second-most Quad 1 championships in the nation (five). Only Purdue, with six schools, has more. Perhaps some of that is due to early season games falling to top teams like No. 4 UW and No. 6 Kentucky. Last year's team was so disappointing that outsiders' expectations of the ACC's strength were somewhat lowered.
But it's now mid-January, and North Carolina State has proven so far that it's no different from last year's team. It might just be the opposite. It certainly follows a very different trajectory.
missed the boat
Arkansas, USC, and UCLA were all considered NCAA Tournament teams in the preseason. Arkansas State and USC were ranked 14th and 21st, respectively, in the Associated Press poll. Now, the three are fighting over who has the most disappointing season in the country.
At this point, I would give Arkansas a disgraceful advantage. That's simply because of how much success Eric Musselman has had in the transfer portal era, rebuilding his team year after year. I'm not ready to say with certainty that he won't turn things around this winter, but with the Razorbacks sitting 113th in the NET rankings and dropping to 9-7 after losing three straight, it seems likely. Although it seems very unlikely.
USC was supposed to have the best backcourt duo in the country in Boogie Ellis and five-star freshman Isaiah Collier, but they have been subpar defensively, ranking 86th in efficiency. Now, with Collier sidelined for at least the next month with a hand injury, the only real draw for the 8-9 Trojans is watching LeBron James' son Bronny James develop. . Next up is UCLA, which is 6-10 and is having its worst season since 2003-04, when it won 11 games. The Bruins just lost to Utah this week by 46 points — 46 points! Mick Cronin has inducted a seven-man freshman class and has spent much of his season complaining about the flaws in his roster and the school's name, image, and name recognition.
Musselman, Cronin and USC's Andy Enfield have had great success at their respective schools, with each of the three coaches advancing to the last three tournaments, the first two in 2001 and 2022. , advanced to the second weekend of 2023. Everyone brought in some new elements. on their roster. And all three are suffering through the trying years. This is a reminder that while the era of the transfer portal may lead to faster responses, it is also creating greater differentiation. These three programs are prime examples.
Game of the week:
No. 22 Clayton, No. 4 Connecticut, Wednesday, 7 p.m.
The first quarter of the Big East season has been unpredictable. No. 11 Marquette and Creighton already have a combined five losses. Seton Hall is in first place. But UW, unsurprisingly, continues to win despite star center Donovan Clingan missing the past five games with a foot injury. On Wednesday night, there was an opportunity to create further separation between the company and one of its top challengers. The Blue Jays have been on a roll, winning four straight, including a one-point win over surging St. John's on Saturday. Clingan continues to progress, and the Huskies could certainly use him to play against Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner, the two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year.
sowing seeds
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Arizona, Kansas
2: Houston, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Tennessee
3: Kentucky, Baylor, Duke, Memphis
4: Marquette, Illinois, Clemson, Auburn.
stock watch
Up
seton hall
Will this year's market be Pirates? Could a team that was underrated in the preseason and ignored by Big East coaches just win the league crown? That's not out of the question. No player in the conference is having a better season than jack-of-all-trades point guard Cadary Richmond. Seton Hall is tied with UW for first place in the league standings in the Big East with wins over the Huskies and Golden Eagles, who are already expected to take the lead. Last year, Marquette had the No. 9 pick and finished first in the conference. Seton Hall was also projected to finish ninth in October. History can repeat itself.
Javon Kunally
David Jones, who was transferred to St. John's, has been making a lot of headlines due to the rapid progress of No. 13 Memphis, and naturally he is also attracting attention as the leading scorer. Kunary is just as important to the Tigers. Few point guards have played better. The Hackensack, New Jersey, native averaged career highs in assists (4.4), rebounds (3.1), steals (1.1) and free throw percentage (85.3) while scoring 13.6 points and shooting 44 percent from the field. are doing. His most recent performance was 23 points, 11 assists, four steals and five 3-pointers in a rout at Wichita State.
under
rutgers
Rutgers was expected to struggle to make it to the NCAA Tournament this year after losing three starters, but was expected to have at least a chance at making the NIT. However, the Scarlet Knights don't look like a team worthy of the postseason. Cliff Omoruyi has regressed, averaging nearly three points less than he did a year ago, and no one has emerged to fill the void left on the perimeter by the departures of Paul Mulcahy, Cam Spencer, and Caleb McConnell. . They are tied with Michigan for the Big Ten title and are coming off their worst season since 2018-19. Five-star prospects Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, who are headed to Piscataway, New Jersey, next year, can't arrive soon enough.
gonzaga
The Zags' record of 24 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is in jeopardy. Gonzaga, ranked No. 49 in the NET rankings, winless in Quad 1 and currently losing in Quad 2 at Santa Clara, may need to win the WCC Tournament unless it goes on an extended winning streak. St. Mary's and San Francisco still have Quad 1 opportunities, but neither represents much of a change for teams with mostly empty resumes. The game against No. 6 Kentucky on February 10 will be of great significance for coach Mark Few's team and for expectations for the tournament as a whole.
