I would argue that NFL Divisional Round weekend is the best football weekend of the year.
These games will almost always be streamed, and this will be the last time more than one game will be streamed on the weekend leading up to the Hall of Fame Game.
Don't waste any time and go straight to your favorite bets for the divisional round.
Packers vs. 49ers predictions
Packers vs. 49ers odds: Packers -10, over/under 50.5
Saturday 8:15pm ET, FOX
Since Week 9, Jordan Love has ranked in the top three among eligible quarterbacks in above-expected completion percentage, EPA per play, and Pro Football Focus passing grade.
He's been playing like an MVP candidate for about six months now.
The 49ers' secondary is excellent, ranking third in PFF coverage grade.
Still, Green Bay's offensive line needs to protect Love and allow him to develop routes, which should open up the Packers' young, deep, and explosive wideout core.
The Packers rank seventh in PFF pass blocking grade and have the sixth-fewest sacks in the NFL.
The 49ers rarely blitz and their pressure rate is only around league average.
If the Packers can keep Nick Bosa at bay, Love will slice and dice.
Even better, Green Bay needs to move the ball on the ground.
Aaron Jones has played well (118 yards per carry, 5.6 yards per carry, three touchdowns in the wild-card win) and has thrived in the lead back role in the absence of AJ Dillon. It's actually a good thing Dillon isn't in the rotation. Bad back.
San Francisco's run defense, on the other hand, is really poor. The Niners rank 26th in rushing EPA per play allowed and 24th in rushing completion percentage allowed.
At least the front seven is the team's weak link, ranking 15th in rushing defense DVOA.
So the puck needs to score and hang around in this game.
And we love supporting big dogs that can score. That's because they can keep their distance on offense and sneak in the backdoor with explosive late drives to fend off defenses.
What scares me is that the Packers' defense is so poor that they're going to let Brock Purdy and San Francisco's weapons run freely in the open field.
Kyle Shanahan has an elite offensive mind and will outsmart Packers defensive coordinator Joe Berry all Saturday night.
But then again, the Packers can score, score some more, and hang out for 60 minutes.
The public wants the rested No. 1-seeded Giants to play in the divisional round. Picking these teams is common sense.
But it's not profitable.
Over the past 20 years, only 42% of home favorites have been covered.
One seed covers only 35% of the time, including a 10-25-1 ATS mark when 10 or fewer people support it.
Even better, the road team that missed the playoffs last year is 27-13 ATS in the divisional round. The Packers are a young, up-and-coming team ready to break onto the sport's bigger stages.
love is in the air Love always wins. Love Actually. All the cliches.
Please give me the pack and points.
As a side note, I'd probably bet on the over. The Packers are a great over team because they score and allow runs like crazy.
Purdy & Co. can score from anyone and should drop a lot of points here, but I think the 49ers' defense, especially against the run, is a little overrated (a month ago, Baltimore's ferocious rushing attack gave them (See how it was dismantled).
Packers vs. 49ers selection: Packers +10 or higher 50.5
Texans vs. Ravens predictions
Texans vs. Ravens odds: Ravens -9, over/under 44.5
Saturday 4:30pm ET, ESPN
Houston's handicap is similar to Green Bay's handicap.
Houston missed the playoffs last year and is the favorite to finish 10th or lower in the divisional round. The Ravens are a rested one-seeded powerhouse. All trends point to Houston.
And similarly, Houston boasts an elite quarterback in C.J. Stroud who has been sacked all year.
Since Week 9, Stroud ranks 10th among eligible quarterbacks in EPA par play. Excluding the game Stroud missed due to injury, the Texans rank fifth in passing offense DVOA.
Baltimore's disgusting secondary and all-around pass defense will be tough to beat.
The Ravens are very good in the secondary, ranking second among NFL units in PFF coverage grade and EPA per dropback.
But the Cowboys have a good pass defense as well, ranking ninth in PFF coverage grade and fifth in EPA per dropback allowed, and C.J. gives them a new defense.
Even better, Dallas can actually create pressure behind Micah Parsons.
The Ravens aren't all that good at getting to the quarterback.
It remains to be seen if Stroud can perform again, but he should score enough points to keep this game under 10 points. He'll have no choice but to do so, considering Houston's pathetic rushing game.
Houston's defense is bad, but I surprisingly like this matchup.
The Ravens are rushing first and rank first in the NFL in rushing percentage (50.3%).
They ground and pound everyone in their path, ranking 3rd in EPA per rush and 1st in rushing offense DVOA.
This season, only the Bears had more rushing yards than Baltimore's 2,720.
And they'll run right into Houston's troublesome defensive line.
Behind a front four that ranked second in defensive line yards, the Texans ranked second in rushing defense DVOA and first in rushing success percentage.
Only the Patriots had a lower yards per carry mark allowed than Houston's 3.5 yards.
Lamar Jackson has to carry the Ravens into coverage with his arm.
He can do that, ranking in the top 10 in EPA per dropback allowed and currently battling a porous Texans secondary.
But that's not what coach John Harbaugh wants, and if Baltimore's rushing game gets stuffed, it could derail the Ravens' game plan.
Ultimately, I think Stroud and Houston's defensive line will keep the Texans going for 60 minutes in this game, leaving the backdoor wide open with an explosive passing attack. Again, I love betting on big dogs that can score.
Take the trend angle and score points with Stroud et al.
Texans vs. Ravens picks: Texans +9 | Played to 7.5
Buccaneers vs. Lions predictions
Buccaneers vs. Lions odds: Lions -6, over/under 48.5
3pm ET, Sunday, NBC
I have a really hard time putting a handicap on this.
On the one hand, the Lions will have to defeat a powerhouse Buccaneers team that overperformed and beat a rogue Eagles team in the wild-card round.
Jared Goff is also a much better player inside the comfort of the Ford Field Dome and could shatter Tampa's relatively lame-duck pass defense (22nd in EPA per dropback allowed). .
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield could keep the Bucks afloat by crushing Detroit's porous secondary.
Baker is a top-10 quarterback in the NFL by metrics, playing against a Detroit team that has two elite wide receivers and ranks seventh in the bottom 7 in EPA in dropbacks allowed and pass completion percentage allowed. There is.
The key for the Lions will be creating a pass rush against Tampa's often erratic front five with Baker limping.
Aidan Hutchison is a monster who has generated over 100 pressures this year, and his matchup with right tackle Luke Goedeke will be a determining factor in the spread.
Unsurprisingly, PFF rated Goedeke as the 29th best pass-blocking tackle in the NFL (out of 83).
He's above average, but Hatch probably has the edge.
Still, I don't have a good enough feel for this game to recommend playing it.
If I had to, I'd bet on the Lions and the over and expect a relatively high-scoring indoor shootout with two above-average quarterbacks and two fearsome secondarys.
Buccaneers vs Lions Picks: Pass | Lean Lions -6+ 48.5
Chiefs vs Bills Prediction
Chiefs vs. Bills odds: Invoice -2.5, more than/less than 45.5
6:30pm Sunday, CBS
As a field goal or less favorite or underdog, Patrick Mahomes is 11-6-1 ATS in the regular season and 5-2 ATS in the postseason.
But he's never played in a road playoff game before, and he'll be in perhaps the most hostile environment in the NFL: Bills Mafia insanity.
I love this Bills team. They were always good, only suffering some bad luck during a mid-season slump.
They are second in the AFC in goal difference (+140) and third in estimated DVOA wins (10.7).
Josh Allen is explosive on offense and solid defensively, especially in the secondary (7th in EPA per dropback allowed). The Bills are an all-around good football team.
The Chiefs have Mahomes, but there are holes all over the place.
The core of Uke is terrifying.
Even if Laci Rice starts to come into his own, everyone else is dropping the ball, with the Chiefs leading the NFL in drops and Travis Kelce regressing with age.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
The pass defense was strong, but the rush defense was among the worst in the league.
The Bills can move the ball on the ground with James Cook, who ranks second in EPA per rush and rushing success rate.
You have to bet on the Bills here.
They are too strong and home field advantage will be key against Mahomes. And the Chiefs are still a shaky team that has put together an up-and-down year — remember, they lost five of eight games between Oct. 29 and Christmas.
Also, the Chiefs may be overrated after their wild-card win over Miami. The warm-weather Dolphins had no chance of winning in the historically cold weather.
They were doomed from the start, but that doesn't mean Kansas City will be a force again.
Chiefs vs. Bills picks: Bill -2.5 | Reproducible by number
