New Hampshire is Haley’s last, best shot

“The people of Iowa choose their corn, and the people of New Hampshire choose their president,” the governor said at the time. John Sununu, 1988. New Hampshire's primary is on Tuesday, but it appears the election is already over. Last week, former and (possibly) future Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won a landslide victory in the Iowa caucuses.

Trump entered the primary as the front-runner, but his opponents, especially Ron DeSantis, were hoping to win, or at least lose narrowly, in Iowa. That didn't happen. Trump won 51% of the vote in the Hawkeye State. Mr. DeSantis was second with 21%, Nikki Haley was third with 19%, and Vivek Ramaswamy won with just under 8%, but quickly dropped out to support Mr. Trump.

For now, DeSantis and Haley are continuing to campaign. Nationally, things look bleak for them. The average poll from Decision Desk Headquarters and The Hill gives Trump a 50.7 point lead among Republican primary voters.

But there is a silver lining in New Hampshire, at least for Haley. In the Granite State, Trump's lead is modest at 10.6 points. Haley has been steadily rising in the polls in recent months, from 4.2% on Aug. 1 to 35% now. Mr. DeSantis' approval rating fell from 13.9% to 5.8% over the same period. Trump's approval rating has been steadily hovering in the mid-to-low 40s, and currently stands at 45.6%.

There are several factors behind Haley's meteoric rise in New Hampshire. Chris Christie ran a clear anti-Trump campaign in New Hampshire, gaining about 10% support before dropping out. Haley is the obvious second choice for many supporters. DeSantis is essentially Resigned Return to New Hampshire and switch focus to South Carolina. More importantly, New Hampshire is an open primary state.

The Democratic National Committee, at Joe Biden's request, sought to change the New Hampshire primary to put South Carolina first on February 3rd. But New Hampshire will hold a primary in January anyway, but no delegates will be chosen based on the results. . Biden is technically not running in New Hampshire and is not on the ballot, but his supporters are organizing a write-in campaign (expect delays in reporting results). .

Democratic Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota and self-help author Marianne Williamson are on the New Hampshire ballot. But both candidates are far behind Biden nationally, and the polls we have show they are likely to finish behind Biden in New Hampshire as well. Barring health complications, Biden's renomination is almost certain. And since the Democratic primary is apparently over, many registered Democrats and independents may cross the border to vote in the Republican primary, where their votes could make a difference. likely to bring about And those voters are overwhelmingly likely to support Haley.

Nikki Haley is perhaps the most moderate of the three major Republicans still in the race. Trump is, well, Trump. DeSantis has generally sought to outsmart Trump on the right, criticizing Trump's coronavirus policies and protect He signed a six-week abortion ban in Florida. In contrast, Hayley claimed Republicans need to be “honest” and “find consensus” on abortion, instead of focusing on proposals that “don't even get a vote in the Senate.” I had seen some of her TV ads while watching the Patriots at her home in Boston. She speaks of national unity and touts polls showing her leading Biden in the general election.

Haley's coalition of independents, crossover Democrats, and educated moderate Republicans gives her a relative advantage in New Hampshire. Her lead over Mr. Trump is relatively narrow, according to our polling average. Some polls show her tied for him or even better. Although the formal result is still a Trump victory, Haley's upset is not all that surprising.

Let's say Haley wins New Hampshire. So what? It's possible she gains enough momentum to turn her primary from her coronation to a competition. But she will probably continue to lose all other states to Trump. New Hampshire is a good location for Haley. She is not well suited to win the Republican primary. According to a public opinion poll, plural Among her supporters in Iowa, they will generally vote for Biden over Trump. The poll also found that Haley's net favorability ratings among Iowa Republicans have collapsed since August. That's the same period as Haley's surge in New Hampshire.

My guess is that these two data points are connected. Ms. Haley has the support of independents, Democrats and moderate Republicans, and is making strides in New Hampshire polls. But that created the impression among Republican voters in other states that she was a RINO, or “Republican in name only.” It's a double-edged sword, but if Haley can walk that fine line, she could likely turn her victory in New Hampshire into a real chance for her to win the nomination.

Milan Singh is a data science researcher at Decision Desk HQ and a second year student at Yale University.follow him @milansing03.