The Miami Heat are looking to make another breakthrough in the NBA Playoffs after an incredible run to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed last season. With the arrival of a key addition to Miami who adds scoring and 3-point shooting, the Heat will once again be dreaming big.
The Heat acquired Terry Rozier from the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a 2027 first-round draft pick. According to multiple reports. The draft pick becomes lottery protected in 2027 and becomes unprotected in 2028. According to Jake Fischer of Yahoo! Sports.
At the time of the trade, the Heat were 24-19 and held the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Miami is looking to stay out of the play-in tournament by finishing within the top six in their conference, and acquiring a dynamic scorer like Rozier should help.
Rozier turned 30 in March and has averaged exactly 20 points per game over 4.5 seasons with the Hornets. This trade signals another rebuilding move for the Hornets, who will once again have a pick near the top of the draft at the end of the season.
Let's evaluate this deal on both sides.
Miami Heat Grade: A-
The Heat are still below the top three teams in the Eastern Conference. boston celtics, milwaukee bucksand the philadelphia 76ers. Of course, Miami defeated two of those teams last season en route to the NBA Finals. The Heat need an offensive spark if they want to make another run in the playoffs, and Terry should be a big help in that regard.
The 6-foot-1 guard is a tough shot maker inside the arc and can also make and make high-volume 3-pointers. Since joining the Hornets in 2019-2020, Rozier has completed 37.2 percent of his 7.8 attempts per game. This year, he has taken on more responsibility than ever in Charlotte's offense and is having the best season of his career.
Rozier has been one of the best pick-and-roll ball handlers in the league this season. According to NBA.com. He is scoring his 1.11 points per possession in these actions, which account for his 34.3% of his offense. Of all the players who have used at least five pick-and-roll handler possessions per game this year, only Pacers superstar Tyrese Haliburton has scored more efficiently.
Rozier's 27.2 usage rate this season is the highest of his career, and his 57.4 percent shooting is tied for the all-time record for scoring efficiency. Rozier is also posting a career-high assist rate of 30.3 percent this season. He has also never posted his BPM or his PER which is better than this as two imperfect all-in-one metrics.
For Miami, Rozier will see fewer on-ball opportunities in important games, but his ability to lead the bench unit will still be hampered while Jimmy Butler is rested. Miami's offense currently ranks 20th in the league. Rozier will lead Miami's new guard room alongside Tyler Herro. Rozier had a reputation as a good defender when he was younger, but he's struggled in that regard numerically this season, ranking in the 93rd percentile offensively and the 5th percentile defensively. Per EPM. If there's anyone who can get Rozier's defense back to what it once was, it's Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra.
With the addition of Rozier and the emergence of rookie stud Jaime Jaquez, the Heat have the pieces to make another Finals appearance despite losing Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and last year's core member Lowry. I believe I have it. Boston, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia all feel more formidable than last year. Giving up just a lottery-protected pick to Miami could have easily earned them an A+, but the fact that the pick will no longer be protected in 2028 is a little scary.
The pressure is on for Miami to win at the highest level again. I have to commend them for giving it a try.
Charlotte Hornets Grade: A
At the time of this trade, the Hornets were 10-31. If the season ended today, Charlotte would have the fourth-worst record in the league and the fourth-best chance of hitting the draft lottery.
Yes, the 2024 NBA Draft isn't very good — read the complete mock draft here — but the Hornets are still doing the right thing by prioritizing the future. They didn't win anything with Rozier on the roster and it felt like they flipped him for what he was worth.
The Hornets want the Heat to become a lottery team in 2027, so this pick will no longer be protected in 2028. Miami is one of the best organizations in the NBA, but the team could age quickly with 34-year-old Jimmy Butler. Rozier getting a lottery-protected pick alone is solid value for Charlotte, but an unprotected pick could be a big boon.
Charlotte may be terrible right now, but the outlines of a winning team are starting to emerge. LaMelo Ball is one of the game's top young creators if he can stay healthy and overcome his worst tendencies. Selecting Brandon Miller over Scoot Henderson probably wouldn't have been done in the 2023 NBA Draft, but it seems like a smart move now. Mark Williams is another promising young center who should provide rim protection and lob catching for years to come.
The Hornets need a defensive-minded wing, another shot creator, and more shooting ability, especially in the frontcourt. They need the ball to stay healthy. If they potentially acquire an unprotected pick from Miami in 2028, they could either keep it or get another big chip to flip in a trade. This is a win-win deal.
