To save Ukraine, Democrats must compromise on immigration

Earlier this week, U.S. officials led by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with representatives of more than 50 countries supporting Ukraine. Participants created subgroups focused on drones and armor.austin Said “President Putin wants the missiles and drones to demoralize the Ukrainian people and destroy the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian military,” the assembled officials said. …If we lose our nerve, cower, and fail to deter other invaders, we will only invite more bloodshed and chaos. ”

However, it is the United States that seems nervous and frightened. In late December, the administration announced a $250 million arms and equipment package based on previously approved presidential funding reduction authority. Although a recalculation of the value of supplies sent to Ukraine has made an additional $6.1 billion available to Kiev, the “drawdown” cupboard is now depleted. There was no additional funding this month.

Key to additional aid to Ukraine is the administration's requests for additional support for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. But its fate remains uncertain at best. The latest concurrent resolution, passed by Congress earlier this month, sets a March 8 deadline for passage of a fiscal year 2024 appropriations bill for, among other things, the Departments of Defense and State. Through these institutions, most of the aid to Ukraine is funded. Ukraine's most powerful allies on Capitol Hill would like to see it passed alongside the fiscal year 2024 spending bill, or that the money for Kiev be rolled into defense spending. Neither outcome is guaranteed.

Right-wing House Republicans, egged on by former President Donald Trump, oppose the additional bill for two main reasons. They argue that instead of pumping billions of additional dollars into Ukraine, these funds should be spent domestically, or better yet, not spent at all. Additionally, opponents of the request reject the provisions regarding border controls as too weak.

Indeed, while Senate and House negotiators are attempting to reach a compromise on the additional border control provisions, Senate conservatives are echoing the House negotiators' objections. In particular, opponents in the Senate argue that negotiations currently taking place between Senate Democrats and Republicans would give the president the power to deport immigrants without processing asylum, but only if 5,000 people enter the United States each day. They have expressed concerns about the provisions that are said to be granted.

But any agreement reached by the Senate and sent to the House is likely to fail. House Speaker Mike Johnson reportedly supports additional funding for Ukraine, although likely less than the administration's request for more than $61 billion. Nevertheless, he is unlikely to accept a Senate proposal that does not meet most of the tough immigration standards sought by right-wing House members. In fact, there is pressure on the House Republican caucus to veto any immigration legislation. If passed, it would certainly allow the Biden administration to declare victory on one of the most contentious issues of the election year.

All of the above bodes poorly for Ukraine's prospects in its continued efforts to repel the Russian invader. The Ukrainian army is in dire need of all kinds of supplies, given the heavy losses in personnel, but unlike the Russian army, their replenishment is proving extremely difficult. Additionally, the high levels of deaths and casualties inflicted by Russian forces on Ukrainian forces continues to demoralize both soldiers and civilians.

Despite Secretary Austin's request, Ukraine's friends in Europe and elsewhere are unlikely to accept the slack from the United States' failure to provide additional aid to Kiev. Their inability to help Ukraine is not due to a lack of support for Ukraine. Several NATO countries have ambitious plans to increase defense spending in response to Russian aggression, but these efforts will take years to materialize. Meanwhile, countries that have provided significant aid to Ukraine have depleted their stocks to the point of concern about their ability to defend their territories in the event of renewed Russian adventurism.

Many experts, including Lloyd Austin himself, have pointed out that if the United States abandons its aid to Ukraine, its pledges to aid Taiwan will lose all credibility. This view applies equally to America's efforts with European allies and partners. They, too, will come to the conclusion—and certainly already worry—that America will become increasingly inward-looking no matter who wins the presidential election.

It is too late to lament the administration's decision to include immigration provisions in the supplementary request. Any hope of passage clearly requires concessions to Republicans, particularly those in the House, on border control so that Democrats can declare victory as loudly as they certainly do. Therefore, any Senate compromise would need to give the House room for additional concessions and allow Johnson to bring in a majority of his caucus to support the addition.

If Johnson is unable to do so, Ukraine will not be the only country left at Russia's mercy. Rather, the entire international system built on the foundations laid by Washington nearly a quarter of a century ago could tragically collapse to the benefit of America's most determined enemies.

Dov S. Zakheim is Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors Foreign Policy Research Institute. He served as the Under Secretary of Defense (Inspector General) and Chief Financial Officer of the Department of Defense from 2001 until 2004, and from 1985 until 1987.