You'd be optimistic if Patrick Roy's first three games as Islanders coach were the first three of the season.
Even though the Islanders lost to the Golden Knights and Canadiens, there's a lot to like about when you look at the advanced numbers.
After an eventful game against Dallas, the Isles won in overtime but got the majority of their shots and chances in the final 120 minutes of hockey.
His 6.72 expected goals against Montreal was not only a season high, but also the highest since Natural Stat Trick began compiling the statistic in 2007-08.
You'd throw around terms like small sample size and regression to the mean and calculate that if the Islanders continued to play like that, they'd be in pretty good shape over 82 games.
“We dominated the whole second half of the game,” Noah Dobson said Thursday after a 4-3 loss to the Canadiens, and statistically he was very much right.
But here's the problem.
The Islanders don't have 79 games left to resolve this.
They are only 34 people.
They are five points behind the Flyers, who are in third place in the Metropolitan Division, with a game in hand, but are four points behind the Red Wings, who are in second place in the wild card spot.
Also, New Jersey State is tied for points (51) and needs to get past the Devils, who have two games left.
If they can perform well, especially after the All-Star break, they won't be out of the playoff race.
After all, that's how the Islanders were successful last season.
But just because advanced numbers are good means you can't just wait and assume things will work out.
I don't have time for that.
“I don’t feel like we’re making a lot.” [mistakes]” said Bo Horvat. “It's just that whatever we create goes into the goal. That's the situation right now, but again, we can't feel sorry for ourselves or make excuses. We could do better. I have to.”
Implicitly, this is an admission of two problems.
First, the Islanders' goaltending is good, with a cumulative save percentage of .904 ranking seventh in the league. But it hasn't been that good, especially lately.
Ilya Sorokin's wear and tear is evident after 15 straight games, and Sam Montembaugh outplayed Semyon Varlamov on Thursday, as the Islanders netminder stopped 22 of 26 shots.
Second, the Islanders' penalty kill has been shocking all year, ranking 31st in the league at just 72.97 percent.
Montreal's only goal of the 5-on-5 on Thursday was the deciding point.
When you put those two factors together, it's especially surprising that the Islanders can't erase their mistakes like they did in the 2022-23 season, when they finished in the top 10 in penalty kills and had the league's second-best save percentage. That's not the point.
Varlamov's return from injury should help Sorokin now that he doesn't have to play every night. And like just about every other element of how the Islanders play, Roy is making some changes to the penalty kick.
“We're playing a lot more of what we call diamond kills, taking away sides,” Horvat said. “There's a good hockey team there and teams will find a way around it. They made some great plays there and we weren't out of position out of position.”
Saturday's game against the Panthers at UBS Arena will be the Islanders' last game before an eight-day break, so Roy will have to gauge where the team is heading into the important month. Time should be given.
The March 8 trade deadline comes right after the All-Star break, but the Islanders will have to decide how aggressive they want to be — especially after Adam Pelech took an elbow from Brendan Gallagher. In case there is a possibility of missing time. He held his head high during Thursday's game.
If time was on the Islanders' side, things would seem to be going well for now. But they don't have that luxury.
