Former President Trump has avoided many of the controversies that have destroyed other candidates, but he is not completely immune to the laws of political gravity.
A new poll suggests that a conviction in any of the four criminal trials he faces could prove that point in dramatic fashion.
A poll released Wednesday by Bloomberg and Morning Consult found that We found that 53 percent If Trump were convicted of a criminal offense, a percentage of voters in key battleground states would refuse to vote for him. A slightly higher proportion, 55 percent, said they would reach that conclusion if he were sentenced to prison.
If these numbers are accurate, the presidential race could easily be decided, given how close Trump’s previous two elections were in 2016 and 2020.
A conviction “definitely could be a deal breaker in the election. [Trump or President Biden] They can win or lose for a variety of reasons,” said Doug Hay, a Republican strategist who served as communications director for the Republican National Committee.
The Bloomberg poll was conducted in seven states likely to determine the outcome of the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Interestingly, the poll found that 20 percent of voters in states that voted for Trump in 2020 are “somewhat reluctant” or “very reluctant” to vote for him again if he is convicted. ”.
“The lead in the polls shows that there are many Republican voters who say a felony conviction is a bridge too far,” said Republican strategist Dan Judy. “So does that mean Donald Trump still wins 80-85 percent of Republican voters instead of 90-95 percent? Probably. But there’s a good chance there will be an election soon. there is.”
Of course, there is a big question mark as to whether these poll numbers will really be borne out in the general election. And so far, absent a criminal conviction, Trump has a 6-point lead among registered voters in battleground states, according to a Bloomberg poll.
Even if some dissatisfied voters have serious misgivings, they usually hold back and vote for the candidate who most closely aligns with their views.
In 2016, many people, including some of President Trump’s aides, criticized President Trump after the release of the so-called Access Hollywood tape in which the candidate was heard making extremely vulgar comments about women. He believed that his chances of victory were gone.
Over the last year, four indictments have been filed against Trump, bringing the total to 91 criminal charges. But far from hurting him, these developments appear to have strengthened his grip on the Republican nomination.
Instead of fleeing, Republican voters rallied to him and appeared to share the view that he was being unfairly targeted.
Now, Trump has narrowly won the first two races of this year’s primaries.
But there is a wide gap between Republican voters and the general public.new Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday’s poll found that 79% of Republicans view Trump favorably, compared to just 40% of the general public.
Additionally, Trump faces months of attacks from the Biden campaign and its allies. The broad outlines of this attack are already clear, with Trump’s opponents arguing that his election will endanger democracy itself.
Mr. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges against him. Meanwhile, his lawyers have repeatedly requested postponements.
As it stands, Trump’s trial in New York related to the hush-money payment allegations is scheduled to begin on March 25th. Trump’s trial related to classified documents discovered at Mar-a-Lago is scheduled to begin on May 20. Georgia has proposed starting his trial on Aug. 5 on charges of conspiring to overturn the election.
If Trump actually wins the Republican primary, he will be officially selected as the party’s nominee at the Republican National Convention in mid-July.
His federal trial on charges related to attempts to overturn the 2020 election, including the events of January 6, 2021, could also take place this year. But the issue remains in limbo until the courts decide on Trump’s argument that the president should be immune from prosecution.
Beyond the basic questions of whether Trump will be found guilty of any charges and whether he would have an electoral advantage if he is acquitted, there are also more practical questions.
Trump, now almost certain to be the Republican nominee, will have to divide his time between trying to return to the White House and staying out of prison.
“As people always say, your most valuable resource as a candidate is your time,” Judy said. “The more time he and his people spend trying to keep him out of court and out of prison, the more time he has to energize his support base or persuade a few persuasive voters. You’re going to spend less time campaigning and trying to do things in this country.”
But even Trump skeptic Judy admitted that predicting the former president’s fate has long proven to be a fool’s errand.
“Like many things with him over the years, there is no history to fall back on here,” he said. “There’s no place where you can say, ‘This has happened in similar situations in the past.’ There’s no way to know for sure.”
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
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