Clemson vs. North Carolina prediction: College basketball odds, pick

The North Carolina Tar Heels maintained a two-game lead in the ACC standings with a big home win over arch-rival Duke on Saturday.

So Tuesday’s home tilt against Clemson presents the perfect disappointment and opportunity to sell high.

Clemson vs. North Carolina odds

Clemson vs. North Carolina predictions

(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Conversely, Clemson has lost four of its 10 conference games since an 11-1 nonconference start.

However, the Tigers ran into some bad luck late in the game.

The last three losses have been by a combined six points, including a double overtime loss to Georgia Tech.

All three wins during the same period were by double digits, and the Tigers haven’t played as bad as they recorded, so a big comeback is expected.

In their last meeting, North Carolina won on the road by 10 points, but Clemson made just 1 of 18 (5%) 3-pointers and the Heels made 8 of 23 (35%). I made it a success.

If the Tigers had shot a little more (they’re shooting 35% from deep this year), they might have won.

North Carolina is expected to regress into negative shooting on defense, so I’m betting they can shoot a little more here. The Tar Heels’ opponents are shooting 27% from 3-point range during conference play, but ShotQuality believes that number should be closer to 33% based on the “quality” of attempts allowed. I predict that.

This year’s opponents’ no-guard catch-and-shoot jumpers yielded just 0.92 PPP, about 0.17 below expectations.

They are allowing a lot of 3-point attempts (140th nationally in 3-point percentage allowed) and are expected to miss more, which could cause UNC’s defense to collapse in the future. .

From a more general schematic standpoint, I also like the Clemson matchup.

The Tigers focus their entire attack on stud big man P.J. Hall in the post, utilizing his inside scoring ability to open up boundaries with secondary off-ball screen actions and pop open shooters.

The Heels’ post-up defense is questionable at best (0.90 PPP allowed, 29th percentile), and we already know the defense’s 3-point shooting is slated to regress to negative, so I’m betting Clemson will have a big day. Bet aggressively.

On the other side of the court, North Carolina State runs a pace-and-post-heavy offense, utilizing the guard trio of Elliott Caddo, Cormac Ryan, and RJ Davis to pick up the pace in transition and get the ball to low man Armando Bacot. Dump. post.

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Clemson’s transition defense (1.05 PPP allowed, 37th percentile) is a concern, but the Tigers should hold up well at the bottom against Bacot (0.78 PPP allowed, 74th percentile). Hall and Ian Schiefferin held up well against these sets.

Given the favorable situation and impending two-way regression, the Tigers’ excellent post-up defense is enough to give them a shot as a two-possession road dog.

Give me Clemson to keep this in Chapel Hill.

Clemson vs. North Carolina picks

Play Clemson +7.5 (-115) | +7 (-110) on FanDuel