If you’re looking to sew up some Chiefs props for a 2024 Super Bowl parlay, there are various angles you can take to improve your chances while balancing risk.
Start with the moderate risk of taking the under on Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards prop.
He’s carried the mail through the playoffs as usual, but he’s Patrick Mahomes and this is the Super Bowl we all know, so his line feels like a stretch at 262.5 .
Mahomes’ success this year hasn’t been about hefty yards.
He maintains a passer rating of 100.7 and completion percentage of 68.0, primarily by throwing checkdown passes.
The game will be played indoors at a familiar stadium, but it won’t be against the Raiders.
The 49ers have the fifth-toughest secondary in net yards per attempt, a mark Mahomes hasn’t reached since Week 16 against New England anyway.
Next up is Isaiah Pacheco’s safe leg, which could score a touchdown at any time.
The ball should run through him at a consistent rate, as it did in all three playoff contests where he averaged 21 carries.
Pacheco is also in the midst of a seven-game touchdown streak.
He finished the season top 10 in red zone carries at his position. That included eight goal-line chances.
Finally, move Laci Rice’s receiving yard line to over 50 yards instead of 67.5 yards.
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The rookie has shown himself to be a bona fide No. 1 wideout, but like the rest of the Chiefs’ passing game, his success has come in waves.
He has long catches of at least 25 yards in two of the past three games and has the potential to make big plays.
Rice is doing well in gaining target shares and ranks third among wide receivers in yards after the catch, but I’m still hesitant given his up-and-down numbers.
No. 4 hasn’t completed 68 yards in 8 of his last 13 games, so I’d rather go with a friendlier line on his alt-prop as a parlay recipe than take on Vegas.
play: Parley Mahomes <262.5 yards + Pacheco TD any time + Rice 50+ receiving yards (+424, FanDuel).
