After 544 NFL regular season games and 12 playoff games, the 2024 Super Bowl is finally here.
It felt weird not having soccer last weekend, but now one of the world’s biggest sporting events is being held in Las Vegas on Sunday. It’s a rematch of Super Bowl LIV from exactly four years ago, the 49ers vs. the Chiefs.
While the Niners made two comebacks in the second half to take the lead, the Chiefs took control in all three playoff games.
Here are four of my favorite plays from Sunday’s game on PrizePicks.
Deebo Samuel, over 58.5 receiving yards
The Chiefs have the best defense in the NFL at limiting production to opposing WR1s, giving them just three 100-yard receiving games all season.
This is a result of good cornerback play (Rajarius Sneed) and good defensive schemes.
However, while Samuel often thrives as a top receiver, he doesn’t fit the typical WR1 mold.
He often receives touches near the line of scrimmage, as the Niners want him to get the ball in space and rely on his ability to break tackles.
He’s reached that receiving yardage mark in five of his last seven full games (he left early with an injury against the Packers and only appeared in a handful of games in Week 18) and against the Chiefs. He should be a big part of Kyle Shanahan’s offensive game plan. .
Brandon Aiyuk has fewer than 66.5 receiving yards.
Baked with a slight correlation to the first two picks. For the same reason I prefer Aiyuk to have less than 66.5 receiving yards, I prefer Samuel to have more than 58.5 receiving yards.
The Chiefs already have Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs in check this postseason. It’s also worth noting that Kansas City has an elite pass rush and Brock Purdy doesn’t have the best passing metrics under pressure.
Shanahan will try to get the ball out of Purdy’s hands quickly, which should bode better for Samuel than Aiyuk.
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Isaiah Pacheco Fantasy Points 15.0+
As we saw in the Lions game, the best way to attack the Niners is to be on the ground.
They were 26th in points allowed in EPA during the regular season, but have really struggled to stop opposing offenses in recent months.
Aaron Jones averaged 6.0 yards per carry in their divisional round matchup, and the duo of David Montgomery and Jahmil Gibbs averaged 5.1 yards per carry in the NFC Championship Game.
Pacheco should have plenty of open running lanes in Sunday’s game.
He also scored touchdowns in six of the last seven games and caught the last 17 targets thrown his way.
I’m going to evaluate his fantasy score rather than individual statistical categories. Because this will give him more avenues for success.
Christian McCaffrey achieves 0.5 or more rushing + receiving touchdowns
There is no standard payout for this pick, but it’s still something I’d like to add to PrizePicks.
McCaffrey has scored at least one touchdown in 15 of 18 games this season.
He has scored at least one touchdown in 27 of his past 31 games dating back to last season. That’s an amazing track record.
Something tells me he’ll find the end zone again against the Chiefs, who rank 26th in DVOA vs. Run and 27th in Rush EPA.
Regardless of the game’s script, we know that CMC will be heavily involved.
As evidenced by his 18 rushing touchdowns and 7 receiving TDs, he is just as productive when catching the ball out of the backfield and hitting pay dirt as he is when running the ball into the end zone. expensive.
Enjoy the final game of the season and good luck.
