After two weeks of hype, Super Bowl LVIII is here.
It’s finally game day!
We asked seven experts about their best bets for the 2024 Super Bowl: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs.
Isaiah Pacheco, 64.5 rushing yards (-122, Bet Rivers)
The 49ers’ run defense hasn’t been given enough credit in these playoffs.
Green Bay outscored San Francisco 136-111 on the ground in the district round, rushing for 4.9 yards per carry.
San Francisco was even worse in the NFC Championship, allowing 182 rushing yards.
The flow of the game often dictates a team’s rushing strategy.
When the regular season began, the 49ers often built comfortable leads early on, which meant giving up the lead somewhat as opponents caught up.
However, during the postseason, it is the 49ers who are catching up early, allowing their opponents to play possession football and try to control the game using their rushing attack.
Schematically, the 49ers are also struggling to establish an advantage by dropping safeties. Losing All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga to a torn ACL is a big blow for the 49ers as they play against quality teams.
Given the experience and veteran quarterback, the Chiefs will likely start early on the team, which could give Pacheco more opportunities in the running game. —Michael Arinze
Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown (+155, FanDuel)
Despite missing several games during the regular season with a shoulder injury, Samuel rushed for 1,200 total yards and 12 total touchdowns for the second time in his career.
In the NFC Championship Game, he had eight receptions and three carries for 96 yards.
His seven receiving scores were a career high, and he reached the end zone nine times in his final seven games, giving him the fourth-highest touchdown rate at the wide receiver position.
Samuel has yet to make a splash in the playoffs, but his unparalleled versatility makes him one of the game’s most difficult gadget players to defend, an advantage that could be a weapon in the 2024 Super Bowl. can be expected.
After two weeks of healing, the “broad back” is expected to return to a positive score on the big stage.
This season, he was given nine red zone carries and caught 12 of 17 targets inside the 20.
Aside from Samuel’s use of the red zone, his acumen to extract extra ground from plays increases his chances of scoring. He posted a top-ranked juke percentage and averaged 5.9 yards after the catch per target, finishing in the top 10.
This makes him one of the best X-factors on the field Sunday, and there’s no doubt that Kyle Shanahan will put the ball in his hands accordingly. –Sean Trepedi
49ers win by 25-30 points (+4000, DraftKings)
The best way to find longshot value on the Super Bowl is to bet on markets that correlate with bad games.
No one wants the season to end in a dud. That means very few people would bet on such an event.
myself? I’ll be happy to do it.
We saw Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City lose badly to the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV, so it’s not out of the question for either team to be a complete no-show on Sunday.
You’ll be thrilled to see history repeating itself in Las Vegas. —michael leboff
Travis Kelce, 70.5+ receiving yards (-115, ESPN Bet)
Kelce had a down year by his standards, failing to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in eight NFL seasons.
However, since the playoffs started, he has returned to his old form.
Kelce has topped 70 receiving yards in all three postseason games, and his target share has increased from 21.2% in the regular season to 26.2% in the playoffs.
Defensively, the Niners had the third-fewest rushing yards and 14th-fewest passing yards this season, making them even more vulnerable through the air.
The Chiefs will have to rely on a lot of passing, and the game will be played in a dome, so weather won’t be a factor. –Keith Eister
Ready to start betting on the 2024 Super Bowl?
Deebo Samuel, 58.5+ receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
I’m going to make a ladder bet on Samuel’s receiving prop for Sunday’s game. This means taking the over in his receiving yards and taking the over in the alternate line’s receiving yards.
No player in the NFL is better at limiting opposing teams’ top receivers than the Chiefs, who held down both Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs in the first two games of the playoffs.
Brandon Aiyuk is San Francisco’s WR1, which bodes well for Samuel.
Given Kansas City’s pass rush and good cornerback play (especially Rajarius Sneed), expect the Niners to employ a more quick passing attack on Sunday, keeping Samuel’s targets near the line of scrimmage and forcing him to play in space. are doing.
He has topped 58.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven full games.
If you want to be fancy, I think there’s merit in parlaying the over of Samuel’s receiving prop and the under of Aiyuk’s receiving prop. –Derek Farnsworth
Brock Purdy, 12.5+ rushing yards (-112, Bet Rivers)
This wasn’t where I expected it to be as one of my favorite picks, but Kansas City has allowed opposing quarterbacks to beat this number in 12 of 21 games this season.
Almost any QB with decent legs could hit it for 13 yards against the Chiefs. Most of the mistakes were made by “statue” quarterbacks like Mac Jones, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Aidan O’Connell.
Purdy isn’t afraid to carry the football. He’s over that number in both playoff games.
With so much attention on Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Shanahan has a few things going for him to deploy in a different direction, look downfield or tuck-and-run for an easy gain. I’m sure they’ll design a bootleg for it. And with everything at stake, there should be less hesitation for Purdy to take off and head to every opportunity.
According to Sharp Football, the Chiefs are allowing 19.9 scramble yards per game to quarterbacks this season, which ranks 30th in the NFL. —Justin Carlucci
Christian McCaffrey wins MVP (+450, BetMGM)
No running back has won this award since Terrell Davis rushed for 157 yards and three touchdowns a quarter-century ago.
Over the past 25 years, 83% of winning players have been quarterbacks (61%) or wide receivers (22%). This shows why Patrick Mahomes (+125) and Brock Purdy (+220) are better. probability.
But I like the value that McCaffrey’s odds (+450) provide. Because of his consistent influence. He scored four touchdowns this season in the playoffs and 25 in 18 games.
As Buffalo proved in the divisional round, the Chiefs can keep going. The Bills rushed for 180 yards and averaged 4.7 yards per carry.
This season, the Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per carry, seventh-most in the NFL.
McCaffrey is a receiver as well as a running back and can beat you in a variety of ways. The fact that he does both equally well gives him his two paths to MVP.
Plus, MVP’s CMC has a great ring to it. –Andy Fenelon
