An intriguing Top 25 matchup takes place Tuesday night in Provo, Utah, as the Baylor Bears travel to take on the BYU Cougars.
These are two offense-first teams built on elite spacing and shot-making, so it’s no surprise that both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency.
Both players have their limits defensively, leading to high scoring events.
Despite getting off to a strong start this year, BYU suffered a blowout loss in the Big 12, losing on the road to lowly Oklahoma State and is now 6-6.
However, I’m betting on a bounce-back, revenge game for the Cougars after losing their last matchup in Waco, and I think it’s time for the Bears to lose after winning five of their last six games.
Baylor vs. BYU Odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
| baylor | +3 (-108) | Not applicable | o155 (-105) |
| BYU | -3 (-112) | Not applicable | u155 (-115) |
(From DraftKings)
Baylor vs. BYU picks
(9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Yes, Baylor defeated BYU by nine points in early January.
However, this score is a bit misleading.
This was Baylor’s first home game in the brand new arena and BYU’s first true road game aside from a short bus trip in Utah.
The situation was very tough for the Cougars.
Additionally, this result required a night in which the Bears made 10 of 23 (44%) 3-pointers. The Bears shot better outside the arc (15-of-35, 43%) against BYU than inside the arc.
I don’t think something like that will happen again.
It’s no surprise that Baylor struggled to generate offense inside the arc.
The Bears run a guard-first offense and utilize a dangerous backcourt of Ray J. Dennis and Jacoby Walter to set ball screens.
But BYU has one of the best ball screen defenses in the country.
The Cougars rank in the top 50 nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (.69) and held Baylor to just 22 paint points in the first head-to-head matchup.
If the Bears can’t create a dribble-drive, ball-screen inside offense, they’ll have to rely on 3-point shooting and shooting right out to win.
They did the same thing against BYU earlier this year, but I’m sure it can’t be repeated.
If the Cougars hold their own defensively again, the Bears shouldn’t take as many threes from Waco. Baylor shot 44% from three at home but just 32% on the road.
The Bears are also set for a more general negative shooting regression.
They’ve made 57 of 140 shots (41%) from deep during their recent six-game winning streak, and I expect them to miss a few more in the next few games. .
Especially if sixth man Langston Love is still injured. Love has missed the past three games with his leg injury and is currently listed as questionable for Tuesday’s fight.
Love was the most feared sharpshooter on the team, hitting 49% of his triples on the year and producing over 1.2 PPP in spot-up situations (93rd percentile).
He scored 15 points on 3-of-4 shooting from deep in the first matchup against BYU, so his absence will be brutal.
On the other side of the court, the Cougars should be able to utilize Baylor in several areas.
BYU primarily runs five-out zoom action sets to generate open three-point shots.
The Cougars rank first in the Big 12 in 3-point percentage, taking over 32 per game and making about 12 (36%) primarily through off-ball screen action.
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Meanwhile, the Bears have struggled to protect their secondary action, ranking 274th nationally in off-ball screens allowed PPP (.98).
Baylor’s defensive struggles start in the backcourt, as the guards are defensive turnstiles.
Walter has stood his ground, but Dennis and Jayden Nunn have been unable to stand in front of anyone.
I can’t imagine the Bears’ lackluster defensive guard keeping up with BYU on the perimeter.
The Bears rank ninth in the Big 12 in 3-point percentage and sixth in open 3-point percentage, as the Cougars hit 9-of-3 (38%) in their first head-to-head matchup. This seems to be the reason.
In the past, Scott Drew competed in the National Championship with a no-middle defense system.
This coverage forces the ball handler to the sidelines and baseline, keeping him away from the middle of the floor while actively denying the paint and rim.
But Baylor’s guards can’t execute a no-middle at the point of attack, leaving the middle of the floor open to the perimeter, which trickles down to the rim.
The Bears are allowing over 30 paint points per game and rank 11th in the Big 12 in two-point shooting allowed (54%) during conference play.
The Cougars don’t like attacking the rim, but they have so much space that they can be effective on the interior.
The opposing defense is dragged quite a bit towards the perimeter, eventually opening up the inside lanes. As a result, BYU leads the Big 12 in 2-point shooting percentage (57%), even with limited attempts.
Considering the Bears are not defending the middle, BYU should be able to generate a clean perimeter look followed by a clean interior look. So here’s why the Cougars shot 17-for-29 (59%) from inside the arc while managing 34 paint points in the first matchup. .
Again, the Bears won the first matchup only because they lit up from deep at home.
In Provo, they can’t protect BYU’s outside-inside offense and should still struggle to create a ball-screen offense, but more threes should be bricked this time around, especially without Love.
If the Bears shoot 45% from 3 again, I’ll have to tip my cap and move on. But I’m ready to bet on it.
The ShotQualityBets model projects BYU as a six-point home favorite over Baylor, so they’re happy to play the Cougars at -4 or higher.
Baylor vs. BYU Prediction
BYU -3 (-112) @BetRivers | Play to -4 (-110)
