The NASCAR Cup Series returns to action on Sunday with the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Fans can watch the race on Sunday at 3pm ET on FOX.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano (+1000) as joint favorites.
Four drivers are behind at +1100, including defending Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney.
This will be the third season that Atlanta Motor Speedway will be used as a draft course, so we could see some surprising results. However, it won’t be as unpredictable as the Daytona 500.
On Friday, I wrote about four of my favorite Atlanta props. Here I offer my best bets for Sunday’s race.
Which drivers should I target for the Ambetter Health 400 in Atlanta?
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Win: William Byron (+1300, FanDuel)
When the dust settled on the Daytona 500, Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron was in victory lane.
The 26-year-old is well on his way to becoming NASCAR’s next superstar and could start the season with back-to-back wins.
Some would argue that Byron is the best driver in Atlanta since the 2021 Repave.
He is the only driver to have multiple wins in the last four races at Atlanta, and his 171 laps lead all drivers.
Looking at the results, there were two finishes below 30th place.
The crash ruined Byron’s race, so I don’t worry about them.
In the 2022 summer race, he led the second-most laps despite crashing with 90 laps remaining.
I fully expected Byron to be the favorite after winning the Daytona 500. I love his value as he aims to become the first driver in 15 years to win the first two races of the season.
Winner: Ross Chastain (+2000, BetMGM)
Chastain was the man who won on the last lap at Daytona. He fell back briefly, but almost regained the lead on the final lap.
In the end, he crashed just as he was about to make the winning pass and finished 21st.
Chastain’s aggressive driving style was on display at Daytona and should benefit him in Atlanta. He led a total of 74 laps in two races at Atlanta in 2022, finishing second in both races.
He didn’t see a similar performance in 2023, as he finished outside the top 10 in both races.
I believe we’ll see Chastain in Atlanta in 2022. Having come so close to winning the Daytona 500, he must be highly motivated.
Top 5 finish: Austin Cindric (+375, bet 365)
Ross Chastain’s final lap wreck also eliminated Austin Cindric from championship contention. Cindric may not have won the Daytona 500, but he was aiming for a top-five finish.
He’s looking to bounce back in Atlanta.
Last week, I talked about how Cindric was a forgotten Ford driver due to the success of his Ford teammates. I think we can expect a similar development in this weekend’s race.
Cindric missed the 2022 Atlanta spring race after crashing.
In the past three races at Atlanta, he has scored the second-most points and led 22 laps. Cindric also finished third in the 2022 summer race.
Hopefully he doesn’t have another wreck late in the race and ruin it. Cindric should be running near the front with his Ford teammate.
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Top 10 Finish: Erik Jones (+125, FanDuel)
Erik Jones has long been one of the most underrated superspeedway drivers.
He won the 2018 summer race at Daytona and has competed for wins in other races. That should continue into Sunday.
Jones has only led 10 laps in the past four races at Atlanta, but has done well to avoid trouble.
He has two top-10 finishes and has never finished worse than 14th.
This will be Toyota’s first start in the new Atlanta. This manufacturer has been incredibly fast at Daytona, and that should carry over into Sunday.
As one of the most consistent superspeedway drivers, we earn positive prize money. Take +125 odds to the bank.
