The AL Central Division will have just 358 district wins in 2023, 23 wins less than the other five divisions.
The Twins are the second-favorite MLB team to win the division at -120.
Despite being heavy favorites to make the playoff series, there is a +3000 price tag on winning the World Series.
This means that even though the Twins have a very good chance of securing a spot, they still rate it low enough to consider their chances at 35/1 to be low enough compared to other World Series participating teams. This is the oddsmaker’s statement of weakness in this division.
Still, there is some debate as to why this sector will become more competitive.
2024 AL Central odds, predictions
| team | 2023 record | O/U | division odds | Pecota projection | fan graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| twins | 87-75 | 85.5 | -120 | 89.0 | 84-78 |
| tigers | 78-84 | 79.5 | +300 | 74.8 | 79-83 |
| guardian | 76-86 | 77.5 | +300 | 83.3 | 80-82 |
| royals | 56-106 | 73.5 | 12/1 | 70.6 | 76-86 |
| white socks | 61-101 | 63.5 | January 30th | 65.7 | 67-95 |
2024 AL Central predictions
kansas city royals
The Royals brought in a number of major league veterans in the offseason to strengthen their young roster.
After winning just 65 and 56 games over the past two seasons, they are hoping for a combination that will take them big.
Oddsmakers are offering a total of 73.5 wins, but did Kansas City do enough to add 18 wins to last year’s total?
Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson and Austin Nola help strengthen the position players, and the Royals signed young infield star Bobby to an 11-year, $288 million extension earlier this month.・I have high hopes for Witt Jr.’s growth. , and Michael Garcia.
KC acquired a number of experienced pitchers through both trades and free agency.
Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Will Smith, Jon Shriver, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, Kyle Wright, Carlos Mateo, Ryan Brady and Cedar Espinal are all new additions to the roster.
Lugo and Wacha will likely join Cole Regans, Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles to complete the starting rotation.
The Royals have certainly improved their roster, which is precisely illustrated by their betting total of 18 wins, which is better than last season’s mark.
Best bet: Cole Regans strikeout leader (60/1, bet 365)
Ragans is a fun big man and worth a look if you want to be a part of the Royals. He has many favorable matchups in the division and has the ingredients to build on last season’s 11.18 K/9 performance.
chicago white sox
The White Sox are the favorites to finish last in the division, but both PECOTA and FanGraphs agree that the 63.5 betting total is a little low.
They acquired Eric Fedde and Chris Flexen in free agency and acquired Mike Soroka and Jared Schuster in trades. The combination of Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech and those four should make up this year’s opening rotation.
The staff posted the sixth-worst xFIP (4.68) in MLB last season, but this season could slightly improve on that record, at least until a possible trade is called off.
The addition of a quality game-caller in Martin Maldonado behind the plate could also potentially benefit Sox pitchers. They also acquired Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong through free agency.
Best bet: pass
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cleveland guardians
Guardians features a similar structure to what we expected.
Despite losing rental players Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito, they still have a strong starting rotation consisting of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibby, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams.
Emmanuel Clase should maintain a strong bullpen, and Cleveland’s pitchers should be well protected by a better-than-average defense.
The most notable change to the team is the replacement of Terry Francona, a three-time AL Manager of the Year winner who led Cleveland to four division titles and six playoff appearances in 11 seasons. Stephen Vogt was appointed as the director with high expectations.
The biggest question mark for the Guardians will be their ability to generate offense. Their team wRC+ was 92, which ranked 22nd in the majors last season.
Jose Ramirez may have a better slugging percentage than the .475 he posted in 2023, but there’s not much reason to expect a dramatic improvement in the team’s overall offense.
Best bet: Guardians win division (+400, FanDuel)
A potential storyline could be the Guardians looking to add more power to their lineup. That’s because for a team looking to prevent runs with pitching and defense, a slight improvement in offensive play could go a long way.
As such, Cleveland is a good candidate to win the division at a long price.
detroit tigers
Can the Tigers break out with their first winning season since 2016?
While there are certainly positives, it will still be a challenge for such a young roster to grow that far and reach 80 wins.
In terms of young players moving forward, a lot is going to need to go right.
Riley Greene, Kelly Carpenter, Parker Meadows, and Colt Keith are all players who could boom without anyone paying attention. The addition of veteran Mark Canha also provides a proven big league bat and clubhouse leader.
Their lineup reached a wRC+ of 99 all of last season, but has improved significantly since August, hitting 99.
If they can significantly improve their performance at the plate last season, it’s not impossible to maintain their starting rotation, which has a wide range of results.
Tarik Skubal has Cy Young-caliber numbers and should be a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation. But what support will there be behind him?
It’s only been two seasons since Jack Flaherty posted a 3.22 ERA, but he still holds a career mark of 3.75. He may still have a lot of potential if he can stay healthy, but it’s hard to see him as someone who can provide a ton of quality work.
Kenta Maeda could be a useful addition, and moving him away from the Twins would revitalize the division.
Reese Olson and Matt Manning will round out the rotation, and the Tigers will be happy to have the 24- and 26-year-old duo perform above league average.
Best bet: pass
minnesota twins
The Twins’ starting rotation looks different with both Maeda and Sonny Gray out, but they’ve added Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani to work with Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Bailey Ober. By doing so, it will continue to be a strength.
Lopez is the sixth-best candidate for the AL Cy Young Award with odds of +1,100, while Ryan ranks inside the top 20 with odds of +5,000. If they’re healthy, they should help keep the Twins’ floor at a relatively high standard this season.
Minnesota’s hitting lineup has the potential to be dangerous at full strength, but the big caveat will always be how many games they can take away from Byron Buxton.
Royce Lewis looked excellent in a small sample last year and has the potential to put together a monster campaign.
The trade release of Jorge Polanco could be seen as a vote of confidence in Brooks Lee, who is considered a top-20 prospect in baseball and could potentially take the team out of spring training.
Best bet: Twins’ World Series numbers (January 28, Caesars)
If the Twins make the playoffs with Ryan and Lopez at the top of the rotation, it’s a reasonable view to back the Twins, as it would be a troubling outing for them to win the World Series at +3000.
But there are a lot of question marks in this division, and I think it’s a good plan of attack to wait and see if any of their rivals get off to a hot start while suffering through a relatively tough schedule.
