This weekend, UFC Vegas 87 will be broadcast live from the APEX Center, headlined by a heavyweight bout between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gazzhiev.
This card boldly features a number of heavy favorites and a few underdogs who can seriously roar their way to victory.
UFC Vegas 87 is so lopsided that FanDuel only pays 18/1 on the 11-leg parlay for all-card favorites.
There are only three games where odds for the favorite are below -200, so you’re faced with the difficult task of finding value in this card.
This is something they should have done last week before getting too cute because they knew Brandon Roybal was worth the price but read too much into the short notice alternative spot.
The 0-2 record reduces our annual profit to 5.46 units per year, giving us an overall record of 5-8.
I’m thinking of getting the ship right back on Saturday.
UFC Vegas 87 predictions
Jairzinho Rosenstruik vs. Shamil Gadzhiev
Moving into the main event, Gadzhiev will face Rozenstryk, a veteran with a proven track record, as the surprising favorite to win this bout. Gaziev appears to have a shiny new object in store that could appeal to the UFC and bettors as a favorite spot given the price.
However, I hesitate to jump on the Gadzhiev train. He attacks opponents from the start and appears to be unapologetic about taking risks.
Rozenstryk is a good striker who has failed many times, but Francis Ngannou comes to mind.
Gaziev is 14-0 in his professional career, but has lost two matches in his amateur career, so he is not invincible. To be clear, he has a chance to win, but he shouldn’t be such a heavy favorite in this spot against Rosenstrike.
In the long run, the odds suggest this fight will probably end in the first two rounds. However, if it goes past the two round mark, it could become a tussle between two tired fighters.
The fight to a decision is +800 at BetMGM, which has happened in two of Rozenstryk’s last six fights.
Although it’s a long bet, make a small bet here. The betting options are:
Picks: Rozenstruik ML (+150, 0.5u, BetMGM); The Battle Goes Far (+800, .2u, Caesars); Rozenstruik Verdict (18/1, .1u, BetMGM)
Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro
Talk about a fighter with all the physical tools. Vitor Petrino appears to be a rising star in the UFC light heavyweight division.
Petrino is a versatile fighter with boxing and grappling abilities. Tyson Pedro is probably his UFC average fighter in this division and a potential building block as an underdog at +260.
Pedro is pretty solid as is, having only been finished in one round once in his MMA career.
They both have a common opponent, Anton Turkari, who has fought both. Turcari suffered a clear decision loss to Petrino, ending his fight with Pedro within minutes of the first round.
Pedro should be able to defend himself and avoid finishing in the first round, but staying afloat and winning are two completely different things in MMA.
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Get Petrino back in this same game parlay.
Pick: Petrino Moneyline + 4.5+ minutes (+100, DraftKings)
