A new poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows President Joe Biden has a poor reputation and the Biden campaign is having a hard time dealing with that reality.
Poll to be released on Saturday
show:
- Donald Trump leads Biden: With just eight months until Election Day, the former president has a sizable 5-point lead over Biden, 48% to 43%.
- Countries heading in the wrong direction: An overwhelming majority of registered voters (65% vs. 24%) believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.
- Biden’s endorsement: A majority of respondents (61%) disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, including 47% who “strongly disapprove.” Only 36% agree
- Favorability rating: Registered voters have a more favorable opinion of Trump than Biden (43% vs. 38%)
- Biden is too old: A majority of respondents (73%) said Mr. Biden is too old to be president, compared to just 42% who said Mr. Trump.
- What can you do for me: Less than 20% of registered voters say Biden’s policies have helped them, while 40% say President Trump has helped them personally.
- Bad economy: A majority of respondents, 51%, described the economy as “poor,” while the remaining 23% described it as “fair.”
The survey also shows “a series of warning signs” that Biden’s weaknesses are dividing the Democratic coalition.
According to the New York Times.
As evidence, polls show Trump leading Biden among Hispanic voters, but tied among women voters. Mr. Trump also received support from 23% of black voters, a sure sign that the Democratic Party is hemorrhaging its core of support.
Even worse for Biden is the fact that nearly all of Trump’s 2020 supporters plan to vote for Biden in 2024, whereas Biden is currently losing a significant portion of his 2020 electoral district. It is.
The Times explained:
Mr. Trump’s ability to consolidate the Republican base better than Mr. Biden unified his own party’s base is evident in the current mindset of 2020 voters. Of those who said they voted for Trump four years ago, 97% say he won, and virtually none of Trump’s past supporters say they will vote for Biden. By contrast, Biden won only 83% of voters in 2020, with 10% saying they now support Trump.
Despite poll after poll showing these warning signs for much of the 2024 race, the Biden campaign is ignoring the results.
“Polls remain inconsistent with how Americans vote, consistently overestimating Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden.” Said Michael Tyler, Biden campaign communications director.
Tyler added: “Actual voter behavior tells us more than any poll and tells a very clear story. While Joe Biden and the Democrats continue to outperform, “And Donald Trump and the party he leads are weak, cash-strapped, and deeply divided.” ”
But is it true?
Neither candidate is likely to win in November, but voter data from the last presidential election shows
I say a lot. In fact, it says the opposite of what Tyler claims.
In the lead-up to the 2020 election, polls significantly overestimated Biden’s approval rating, giving him 3-4 points more than the popular vote and 7-8 points more than the electoral college, and underestimating Trump’s power. was.
A lot can change between now and November. But Biden and the Democrats would be wrong to ignore the red flags.
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