The University of Tennessee won the SEC regular season title on the back of a seven-game winning streak and secured the top seed in the conference tournament.
Kentucky has won six of seven games and appears to be peaking at the right time. The Wildcats have scored 90 or more points in four straight games, and John Calipari’s five-out offense is thriving.
But scoring against Tennessee is far from easy, and Calipari’s defense still has room for improvement.
Still, the Wildcats need a win more than the Vols and have some schematic advantages that should lead to coverage.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions
(4 p.m. ET, CBS)
Despite their defensive advantage, the Vols have a shaky transition defense.
They’re average in fast break points allowed per game (8.8, 6th in the SEC), but even worse when looked at per possession (1.06 PPP allowed, 13th in the SEC).
That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which has one of the most open-court offenses in the sport.
Kentucky leads the SEC in fast-break points per game (15.8) and ranks second in transition PPP (1.13). Only 13 teams in the nation generate more transition possessions per game than the Cats’ 17.7.
Therefore, in the last head-to-head matchup, Kentucky won 20 transition points in 18 opportunities (PPP 1.11) against Tennessee’s vaunted defense, reaching 92 points.
At least the Cats can keep it close on transition buckets alone.
Unfortunately, Kentucky will have to play better defensively than they did in their last head-to-head matchup.
Tennessee runs a flex-motion offense designed to get Dalton Knecht open in space by running around off-ball screens or cutting to the basket.
Knecht played well in the first matchup, scoring 16 points on 5-of-14 shooting (1-of-5). Instead, Zakai Zeigler and Josiah Jordan-James dominated with a combined 52 points, and the Vols scored 29 points (1.26 PPP) on 23 off-ball screens and cutting sets.
But I wouldn’t be surprised to see some setbacks in this area. The Wildcats are surprisingly adept at defending the secondary action, with him ranking in the top five of SEC teams in cut in PPP cut allowed (1.15) and off-ball screens allowed in PPP cut (.83).
Therefore, I don’t expect Kentucky to beat the flex motion set as well as they did in the original matchup.
This is especially true when considering the context and motivation perspective. Kentucky is tied for second place in the SEC with three other teams, and the impact on the Wildcats’ seeding in the SEC Tournament will be significant. Meanwhile, the Vols are locked into the top seed.
Tennessee is still fighting for a seed in the NCAA Tournament, while the Vols need to earn a spot in the SEC Tournament to earn the top overall seed. I don’t think a Q1 loss to Kentucky, which is ranked 20th in the NET, will change things.
And that motivational angle is countered by the revenge angle, as Kentucky hopes to avoid a season series sweep.
Do you want to bet on college basketball?
I’m sure the UK will remain closed on Saturday. In fact, the Cats are 7-3 ATS on the road this year.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Picks
Kentucky +8.5 (-102, FanDuel)
