Battle for the House: 9 races that will determine the majority

As more states hold primaries in the lead-up to November, the battleground for control of the House majority is starting to become clearer.

California, which is certain to be key to both parties’ efforts to win the House, just held its primary on Tuesday, while New York, another pivotal battleground, will hold its House primary in June. is scheduled to be held.

Republicans hold only a slim majority in the House, and races in some of these states will be contentious and close.

Here are the nine House races that will help determine who controls the House majority this fall.

California 13th Congressional District

In California’s 13th Congressional District, Republican Rep. John Duarte and Democratic Rep. Adam Gray are moving forward for a rematch.

Mr. Duarte finished this year’s primary with a lead of about 9 points. he won the midterm elections It was the first time in decades that Republicans had won the district by just a few hundred votes. It was also the second closest parliamentary election in the country that year.

This year, Democrats are counting on Gray to move forward.

California 22nd Congressional District

In California’s 22nd Congressional District, Democrat Rudy Salas advanced to the general election with Republican Rep. David Valadao, setting up a rematch in a close midterm election.

Some feared that Melissa Hurtado, also running for the Democratic Party, would siphon off votes from Salas on Super Tuesday, allowing two Republicans to advance to the general election.

In the 22nd Congressional District race, Hurtado ultimately won 15% of the primary vote, but the latest tallies show Salas advancing with 28% and Valadao’s 34%. Decision-making desk headquarters. In the midterm elections, Valadao defeated Salas by just three points.

Valadao was one of several Republicans in California to vote to impeach Trump. successful in the district People who voted for President Biden in 2020.

California 47th Congressional District

In Orange County, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter left her House seat and unsuccessfully filed to run for one of the state’s few open Senate seats. Porter and fellow progressive Rep. Barbara Lee were dropped from the top two spots in the Super Tuesday Senate primary, leaving Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey heading into a partisan showdown.

Mr. Porter will resign next year, leaving his seat in California’s 47th Congressional District up for grabs.

Democratic state Sen. Dave Minn will face Republican Scott Baugh as Republicans seek to flip a seat previously held by a progressive lawmaker.

Although this district is said to have a “thin support for the Democratic Party,” Min finished the primary with a 7-point lead over Bo, and fellow Democratic candidate Joanna Weiss received nearly 20% of the vote. . Bo lost to Porter in 2022 by about four points.

Michigan’s 7th Congressional District

Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Mich.) decision to seek retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-Mich.) seat has made her seat in the House of Representatives up for grabs.

Republican Tom Barrett, who lost to Slotkin by about 5 percentage points in 2022, is running for the seat again, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is backing the former Democratic state. Senator Curtis Hertel.

reported that the midterm elections were the most expensive House elections in the country. detroit news The 2024 race will once again be a fierce battle as both teams aim to take the lead.

“The path to expanding the Republican majority runs through seats like Elissa Slotkin.” Republican House Campaign Division.

New York 4th Congressional District

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (RN.Y.) is in one of the most unpredictable torso races in the country this year. The political makeup of his district is largely unaffected by the state’s new congressional map, which Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) signed into effect last month, but significant challenges remain to be overcome.

He defeated Democrat Laura Guillen by more than 3 points, although Biden had a roughly 15-point lead in the district. This was one of the best performances in the country by a Republican in 2022, compared to former President Trump’s performance in the same 2nd District. Many years ago.

Guillen is back in the running and could be primed for a rematch with D’Esposito. With Biden likely to easily carry New York in November, D’Esposito will need to rely on a relatively large number of split-vote voters, as he did two years ago, to win a second term. Dew.

New York 17th Congressional District

Rep. Mike Lawler (RN.Y.) scored a big surprise victory in 2022, defeating then-House Democratic Campaign Chairman Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney by just over half a percentage point.

Mr. Lawler has sought to build a reputation as a moderate member of the Republican conference and led the charge to oust Mr. Santos, citing false claims about himself and criminal charges.

The victory was symbolic and key to Republicans gaining a House majority by just a few seats.

He is likely to face former New York congressman Mondaire Jones, who previously represented the district but lost a primary in a different district after the map was redrawn. . Jones’ candidacy would give Democrats a familiar face and someone with past fundraising experience.

Despite Biden winning the district by 10 points in 2020, the race could be close again.

New York 22nd Congressional District

Among the potentially vulnerable New York House Republicans this fall, Rep. Brandon Williams (RN.Y.) may face the biggest challenge.

He won the House seat by a 1.5-point margin in a district where Biden leads by 7 points, but updated maps have made re-election even more difficult. Biden would have won by 11 points under Williams’ own district, which would have won the same amount of split votes that mattered to D’Esposito in 2022. I couldn’t see it.

Williams also supports Trump in the 2024 presidential election, unlike several New York Republicans, which could give Democrats a clear line of attack in the blue state.

Ohio 9th Congressional District

Rep. Marcy Capture (D-Ohio) has represented the state’s 9th Congressional District for 40 years, and has carried a reliably Democratic-leaning district for most of her career. However, Ohio’s redistricting process since 2020 has turned the district into a battleground.

She was successfully re-elected in 2022 against Republican J.R. Majewski with 56% of the vote, but her candidacy was mired in controversy over claims about her work history.

Kaptur is likely to face an opponent with less baggage this time around, in what could be his toughest campaign yet.

The district also voted for Trump by just a few points, and since the state is very likely to support Trump again this year, he will need to surpass Biden at the top to survive.

A victory in the district would be a boost for Republicans hoping to secure a majority and give them breathing room with other battleground districts in bluer states.

Oregon’s 5th Congressional District

On the West Coast, Democrats are also trying to regain a seat that went to Republicans for the first time in decades when Republican Rep. Lori Chavez Delemer won Oregon’s 5th Congressional District in the midterm elections.

Chavez Delemer We won by 2 points In her previous term, she ran against Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, becoming the first Republican woman to serve in the Oregon state legislature.

McLeod-Skinner is running again for a possible rematch ahead of the Oregon primary in May, but the Democratic House Campaign Headquarters back up Instead, he sat behind Oregon Congresswoman Janelle Bynum.

Bynum has already defeated Chavez Delemer twice in the past two elections for the Oregon State House seat, and while the DCCC expects the Democrat to “win again in 2024,” McLeod Mr. Skinner stated: Dissatisfaction with moving.