The column 68 is official. That means you’ll likely be asked to fill out your brackets between now and early Thursday afternoon. It’s always a daunting task, and can make you anxious for fear of embarrassing yourself in front of friends, family, and co-workers that you didn’t really care about to begin with.
Thankfully, we’re here to help you with 15 Bracketing Tips to help you achieve a great finish in your Bracketing Challenge.
1. Get one Final Four pick and get a little wild.
Sure, it’s scary to take one team that could easily lose in the first round and make it all the way to the Final Four, but it could also be the key to winning your bracket pool. All but one team in the Final Four since 2012 has had at least one team seeded No. 7 or lower. Since 2011, a total of 12 teams seeded seventh or lower have been eliminated in the final weekend of the season.
A year ago, No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic advanced to the national semifinals.
The only time in recent seasons that a player seeded 7 or lower failed to make the Final Four was 2019, but even then a 5 seed crashed the party. So take your three favorite teams to the Final Four and throw a dart at the region where you think the top seeds are most vulnerable.
2. Believe there is at least one underperformer in the power conference.
Although not discussed enough, one of the longest March Madness streaks is that in every NCAA Tournament since 2008, a “Power 6” conference team seeded eighth or lower has advanced to the Sweet 16. is. michigan A year ago, they continued the trend by upsetting No. 2 seed Marquette before being eliminated. Kansas East regional semifinals.
Here are the teams that fit that description this year:
Mississippi (8)
Nebraska (8)
Michigan State University (9)
Texas A&M (9)
TCU (9)
Colorado (10)
Virginia (10)
north carolina (11)
Oregon (11)
You may hate all these teams, but history says at least one of them will be one of the final 16 teams remaining.
3. Believe in at least one “First Four” team.
The “first four games” (four games typically played in Dayton on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, involving the lowest four seeded teams in the field and the final four teams to qualify) are quite controversial. and has often been ridiculed. Since its inception in 2011, the Dayton native has won at least his one game in the tournament’s “main draw” every year, but he’s only had one since the First Four took hold. The only year that didn’t happen was 2019.
Overall, the First Four has a total of 21 wins in the tournament’s “main game,” with five Sweet 16 teams and two Final Four teams, the most recent being UCLA two seasons ago.
Virginia, Colorado, Colorado State, and Boise State may not look appealing on paper, but there’s a good chance at least one of them will still be available Saturday or Sunday ( The Buffaloes feel like the safest bet).
4. Don’t pick the 5th seed to win it all.
This may seem a little strange considering a year in which multiple 5 seeds played in the Final Four, but it’s a problem. Other than the 5 seed line, all seed lines 1 through 8 have produced at least one national champion.
The No. 5 seed has advanced to the title game four times, including last season against San Diego State, but has never been the last team standing.
My sincere apologies to San Diego State (again), St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, and Wisconsin.
5. Choose at least one 12 seed to win in the first round. There’s a reason why 12/5 upsets are so popular.
12/5 upsets are a March Madness tradition unlike any other.
In 32 of the past 38 years, at least one 12 seed made it past the first round of the tournament. In fact over the past 15 years he has held a very respectable overall record of 25 wins and 35 losses with him being the 12th seed versus his 5th seed.
Last year was a bad year for 12-seed enthusiasts, with all four schools eliminated in the first round. This year’s crop (McNeese, James Madison, Grand Canyon, UAB) is great, so don’t expect a 12-seed offer to become a thing.
One last thing: It’s a safe bet to take at least one 12 to beat the 5, but it’s not a safe bet to take the 12 much further. Over the past decade, only two 12-seed teams have advanced to the second weekend of the tournament, and in the 68-team era (since 2011), the number of No. 15 seeds advancing to the Sweet 16 has It was the same number. 12 seconds (4 seconds).
6. Take a close look at the 13/4 matchup.
We’ve talked about the frequency of Dec. 5 upsets in the NCAA Tournament, but what about the recent efforts of No. 13-seeded teams? In 11 of the past 15 years, at least a No. 13 seed has made it to the tournament. I am winning the match.
A year ago, Furman pulled off the trick by knocking out Virginia at the buzzer in one of the tournament’s iconic moments.
Charleston, Yale, Vermont, and Sanford are a very talented quartet of Cinderella candidates.
7. Clemson is on high upset alert.
One of the most surprising facts about Sunday’s selection was that if it hadn’t won, New Mexico State would have been eliminated altogether. mountain west Tournament winner.
The biggest loser for UNM, which was assigned the No. 11 seed, was not the Lobos themselves, but No. 6 seed Clemson, which will face coach Richard Pitino’s team.
New Mexico State is currently a 2.5 point favorite going into this game, but that number doesn’t bode well for Brad Brownell’s Tigers.
There have been 11 times in the history of the tournament where the No. 11 seed has had an advantage over the No. 6 seed in the first round. In those games, the 11th seed is 10-1. Nine of the 10 wins were by double digits.
New Mexico is a proud program with a passionate fan base, but the Lobos have never advanced to the Sweet 16. The situation could change this weekend.
8. Don’t automatically move all four No. 2 seeds to the second weekend.
In 24 of the past 26 years, at least one No. 2 seed has been eliminated from the tournament before the Sweet 16. It’s always scary to stray from the choke and you need to overcome that fear, especially before her second weekend. At least one region.
Last season, Arizona lost to Princeton in the first round, and Marquette was bounced by Michigan State in the second round.
9. Be especially careful not to overachieve as a No. 2 seed.
Please note one more thing here. In tournament history, there have been 23 No. 2 seeds that started the season without a ranking and entered the tournament in the top 10 rankings. Fifteen of those 23 teams failed to advance to the Sweet 16.
There was a team like that last year. Marquette lost to No. 7 seed Michigan State in the second round.
This year too, there was a team that fit that description. iowa.
10. At least one “surprise” Elite 8 team is required.
Maybe you’re reluctant to get too carried away with the Final Four, but at least make sure the Elite Eight has some flavor.
In each of the past 12 seasons, at least one team seeded No. 5 or lower advanced to the regional finals, and in 11 of the past 12 seasons, at least one team seeded No. 7 or lower advanced to the regional finals. He also had at least one double-digit seeded player in the Elite 8 in five of the past seven years.
Half of last year’s Elite Eight consisted of teams No. 5 or lower, including No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic.
11. Conference championships are usually important.
In the history of the NCAA Tournament, there have only been five national champions (players who participated in the conference tournament) who did not first win the league’s regular season or postseason title. villanova Kansas State in 1985, Connecticut State in 2014, Duke State in 2015, and university university Last year was the only exception.
The only team on the top two lines that doesn’t fit that description this year is Marquette, but the Golden Eagles won both the Big East regular season and tournament games a year ago before watching conference mate Yukon cut the net. won the title. Maybe they can give back to the Huskies this season.
12. Be wary of the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament.
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee began designating the No. 1 overall seed in 2004. Since then, his teams have won national championships only three times: Florida in 2007, Kentucky in 2012 and Louisville in 2013.
It’s not necessarily news that the best teams don’t always win, but it’s a little jarring to know how rare that team is largely People who go into tournaments believing they are the best actually end up cutting the net.
A season ago, Alabama, the top overall seed in the conference, lost in the Sweet 16 to San Diego State. This is the second year in a row that the pre-tournament favorite has been eliminated before the regional finals.
It’s been more than a decade since the pre-tournament champion got the job done. University University, time is fine.
13. Watch out for the Big Ten/West Coast drought.
One of the longest-running debates in college basketball is when a West Coast or Big Ten team will win the next national title. In recent seasons, the Big Ten has looked to be one of the two best conferences in the sport, with a resurgent West Coast producing multiple national title contenders and peaking in recent seasons. reached.
It’s the first time a Big Ten team has won it all since Michigan State in 2000, and a West Coast team hasn’t found the net since Arizona State swept Kentucky in 1997. No. 1 seed Purdue and No. 3 seed Illinois certainly do. This year, as seen in live shots, No. 2 seed Arizona is flying the West Coast flag.
14. Gonzaga and Kansas are (usually) early locks.
Since 2008, only two teams have made it to the NCAA Tournament without losing a game: Gonzaga and Kansas. The Bulldogs also have an active record for consecutive appearances in the Sweet 16 (third longest in tournament history), having appeared in his second weekend of the tournament every year since 2014.
Those losing streaks will be put to the test in a year where Sanford against Kansas and McNeese State against Gonzaga are likely the two schools garnering the most attention before the tournament.
15. Don’t feel bad about picking the No. 1 seed to win it all.
Even if you don’t choose the No. 1 overall seed (see Rule No. 12), don’t shame anyone for choosing the top seed to cut the net. Since seeding began, No. 1 seeds have won more national titles (25) than all other seeds combined (18).
The No. 1 seed has won five of the past six national titles, six of the past eight and eight of the past 11. It would also be five championships assuming Baylor had been the No. 1 seed in the canceled 2020 NCAA Tournament. Of the past seven national champions, he was the No. 1 seed the year before. 2023 No. 1 seeds: Alabama, Kansas, Houston, Purdue.
