Then, golf gamblingit’s not the loss that sticks with you, but the way it unfolded.
Xander Schauffele, my 20/1 pick at The Players Championship last week, put together a great round on Saturday to take the lead heading into the final round and held it until the 14th hole on Sunday.
His drive missed the fairway by a yard and he couldn’t control his approach shot from the rough. He bogeyed that hole and the next hole as well.
At that point, he was trailing Scottie Scheffler by two strokes with three holes remaining.
He managed a birdie on the par-5 16th hole to get within one, then threw an absolute dart on the difficult 17th at TPC Sawgrass.
Few golfers attempted the pin on the island green this year, but Schauffele pulled his approach shot to 6 feet. At that moment of hope, he missed the putt. Then, on the 18th hole, he hit the ball into a tree and ended up losing by one stroke.
The ups and downs of golf betting are different from other sports. Fortunately, there is no time to lick our wounds as the Valspar Championship is scheduled to start on Thursday morning.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort measures 7,340 yards. This is an unusual par 71 layout featuring four par 5s and five par 3s.
It is also a unique Florida course with tree-lined fairways and plenty of elevation changes. It looks and plays more like a Carolina course than a Florida one.
The fairways here are narrow (average width 30 yards) and some dogleg holes mean the average driving distance for this event last year was just 280 yards. You don’t have to be a bomber to fight here.
The greens are small (5,800 square feet) and feature Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis.
Last year, this field allowed players to hit only 55% of the greens due to regulations that emphasized play around the greens. Iron play is also important, with more than 50% of Copperhead’s approach shots coming from 175 yards or more.
This course is regularly played as one of the most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. The more difficult the course, the more important tee-to-green play becomes.
Putting is always necessary to win tournaments, but this week I don’t mind taking a chance with a bad putter (I mean, Paul Casey has won this event twice). I find that to be a common theme in my thorough selections at the Valspar Championship.
2024 Valspar Championship Top Odds
| golfer | fan duel | bet365 | betmgm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | +650 | +750 | +800 |
| sam burns | +1200 | +1200 | +1100 |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| jordan spies | +1600 | +1800 | +1400 |
| brian herman | +2000 | +2200 | +2000 |
| Cameron Young | +2200 | +2800 | +2200 |
| Im Sung Jae | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 |
| Tony Finau | +2500 | +2800 | +2200 |
| Lee Min Woo | +3000 | +3500 | +3000 |
| nick taylor | +3500 | +3500 | +3500 |
| keegan bradley | +3500 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Sepp Straka | +3500 | +4000 | +4500 |
2024 Valspar Championship Outright Bets
Justin Thomas (14/1, bet 365)
There may be some debate this week about whether Sam Burns should be the head of the board, but after much internal debate I’m backing Thomas.
Thomas missed the cut at The Players last week, but gained 4.7 strokes on his approach. He couldn’t make any putts (he even 3-putted from 5 feet at one point on Friday).
I can forgive his one poor putting performance, especially since he won four of the past six tournaments with a flat stick.
He’s elite on his approach and he’s elite around the greens. He has been on a winning streak for a while now, finishing in the top 13 at this event each of the last three years.
Doug Jim (+4500, FanDuel)
I have always loved building sports models and projections. It may have something to do with my accounting background.
I ran the Golf Model this week and couldn’t believe that Gim had a chance of winning in 6th place. I double-checked all input. As expected, the model loves Gim. At +4500 (and dropping every day) you have to trust this model.
Gim has finished in the top 20 for five years in a row, increasing the number of strokes he takes to hit the ball by more than 20 during that time. He’s accurate off the tee, his approach is top-notch, and his short game has improved this year.
If he continues to hit the ball great and have a good week on the greens, it’s easy to see him competing on Sunday afternoon.
Lucas Glover (+6600, BetMGM)
Do you think Glover can putt well enough to win this week? No, but I also don’t think he can putt well enough to win back-to-back events in the fall.
Almost 70/1, so I’m going to look at his method in the outright market.
He is an excellent total driver of the ball and is a top 10 iron player in this area. Additionally, he has lengthened his stroke around the greens in six of his last seven starts. He’s known for hitting the ball, so this is an added bonus.
He is a great fit for the Copperheads and has a wealth of experience at Innisbrook.
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Yes, that’s a big story, but if he can make the putt during spike week, there’s no reason he can’t win his third tournament in the past eight months.
If one of our three golfers competes again on Sunday, let’s hope he crosses the finish line this time.
