Texas Democrats see political opportunity in hardline immigration law

Judicial fraying over Texas’ controversial new immigration law has delayed its implementation, but it may not have political consequences.

SB 4 is the latest in a series of immigration crackdowns at the local and state level, dating back at least to California’s Proposition 187, a 1994 ballot measure sponsored by then-Gov. Pete Wilson (R) represented individual Californians to report suspected illegal aliens to immigration authorities.

The backlash against Proposition 187 was immediate, with 70,000 protesters marching in Los Angeles. And in the long run, the backlash over Prop. 187 pushed California’s Hispanics into politics as committed Democrats, turning the country’s largest state deep blue.

Similar changes occurred in Arizona in the wake of 2010’s SB1070 “Show me your documents” law, which angered many Arizona Latinos.

SB 4 made it a state crime to enter Texas from outside a port of entry, giving local law enforcement the power to pursue potential immigration violations, which had previously been strictly the purview of the federal government.

“I think Texas is on the verge of becoming a purple state, especially if the Republican Party continues its politics of inciting hatred and fear and divisiveness,” said Domingo Garcia, president of the Texas-based League of Latin American Citizens, the nation’s oldest organization. Ta. Latino civil rights organization.

But Texas has been on the verge of becoming competitive for years, with Democrats falling just short in a series of hypes that scared off many left-wing donors.

Six years ago, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) came close to leaving the party by 2.5 percentage points over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Cruz is the closest Senate Republican to a vulnerable incumbent, along with Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), both of whom were labeled “likely Republicans” by the Cook Political Report. Holds a valued seat.

Democrats argue that SB4 is not a tipping point, but another step toward an inevitable end.

“Latino change is already happening in Texas. Remember, Texas is a single-digit state. Let’s remember that Donald Trump won by just 6 points in 2020. Ted Cruz barely survived by 2.5 percentage points in 2018, and with each cycle, the Texas Democratic Party continues to get closer and closer,” said the Austin-based political operative and former Texas state legislator. said Executive Director Manny Garcia. State Democratic Party.

As the Texas election approaches, the state government is becoming more aggressive on immigration policy.

SB 4 — legislation that was first blocked by an appeals court, remanded by the Supreme Court, and then blocked again by a lower court within hours — follows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s efforts to iron out border policy. This is the step. federal government.

Mr. Abbott is spearheading Operation Lone Star, a program that brings the Texas National Guard into direct contact with migrants at the border, while Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is going after charities that work with migrants.

In February, Paxton launched an investigation into Annunciation House, a well-known Catholic immigrant shelter in El Paso, on suspicion of human smuggling.

“I wasn’t in California when the 187 incident happened, but seeing it here, I realized that even a shelter like Annunciation House could be classified as a hiding place, or even a smuggling organization. “We felt like we could be classified as part of that. That’s something much more sinister,” said Mario Carrillo, campaign manager for America’s Voice, a progressive immigration advocacy group.

If enacted, SB 4 could fundamentally change the number of Latinos living in Texas, especially those in mixed-status households, and change the relationship between the state’s Hispanic population and local law enforcement. It could get worse.

Two provisions are particularly controversial. One allows all law enforcement officers in Texas to detain anyone suspected of entering the country illegally. The other would give judges the power to order illegal aliens to physically enter Mexico or face stiff prison sentences.

This law may never see the light of day. It is an unusual measure that many argue is unconstitutional. That would blunt the political fallout among voters who have no sense of its implementation.

Bexar County Sheriff Antonio Salazar spoke out against the law earlier this week, saying it could encourage racial profiling by deputies, a news report said. Reported by San Antonio Express News.

However, many Latinos in Texas are more conservative than their contemporaries in California and Arizona, and immigration enforcement agencies such as Border Patrol and Customs and Border Protection are a major source of jobs for Hispanics along the border. It becomes.

“There are some people in the Latino community, I think 80 percent of the total. [Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)] Border Patrol agents are Hispanic. That is their livelihood. That’s what they depend on. So they’re going to vote, probably Republican, but there’s also a lot of families at the border, and they’re mixed, so grandpa and grandma might be illegal immigrants, but their kids and My grandson is an American citizen,” Domingo Garcia said. .

“And they don’t want to know that they got arrested for going to church or going to the store, and then they got busted and deported. And then the local police officer becomes an ICE agent. So there’s fear and resistance. I think it’s going to happen, and that’s what we saw in Arizona and what we saw in California.”

In California, which has a Latino population similar to that of Texas, Prop. 187 was adopted by popular vote in the 1994 election, and Mr. Wilson was reelected to a second term.

At the time, support for Proposition 187 was high even among the state’s Latino voters.

A major shift in California politics occurred when Latinos, who had never been politically active, began registering to vote, fearing the impact 187 would have on their lives. .

Although Texas Latinos are more politically active than California Latinos in the early 1990s, broad segments of the Hispanic electorate remain essentially on the sidelines.

“There’s always a running joke in the Rio Grande Valley that voter turnout is higher in the May election than in the November election because it’s the school board election,” Manny Garcia said.

Redistricting after the 2020 Census generally favored Republicans, resulting in the first Republican victory in 100 years in the Rio Grande Valley Congressional seat currently held by Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R). I was also able to accommodate.

But that competitiveness has also galvanized the region’s Democratic political machine to draw voters to the polls in November.

And local Democrats believe the region’s common conservative family values ​​are not reflected in the national definition of conservatism.

“Families in the Rio Grande Valley aren’t sitting around clapping.” [Reps.] marjorie taylor green [R-Ga.] and Lauren Boebert [R-Colo.]. They don’t just sit there praising Donald Trump’s every move. They don’t do that. So if Republicans believe that’s what’s happening in the Rio Grande Valley, they’re delusional,” Manny Garcia said.

And while Texas Democrats have shown competitiveness in tough local races, they are fighting for campaign cash in a difficult cycle in which national attention focuses on proven battleground states.

The fact that Texas Democrats have not won a statewide election since 1994 has troubled party members and scared away big-money donors, including Texans, who bankroll out-of-state races they think are winnable. It’s set.

But Texas’ demographics are changing, not just because there are more Latinos, but also because they are getting younger.

“Since then, there have been approximately 1.8 million new voters. [2018], the majority of them are Latino. And this may be the power of galvanizing. Moments like Rosa Parks inspire Latinos to get out and vote and become more active,” Domingo Garcia said.

Although the NDP has not yet committed significant funds to its Texas campaign, some party strategists are eyeing the opportunity.

“There is a huge opportunity for Democrats to take advantage of this and go completely and completely draconian overreach. “This is a spiritual descendant of failed anti-immigrant and anti-Latino legislation,” said Democratic national political strategist Maria Cardona.