The Post’s Mark W. Sanchez previews the National League West.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U win: 103.5
Key players: Shohei Otani. It has to be the 700 million dollar man, right? Last year, the Greatest Baseball Show on Earth batted in a terrible Angels batting lineup, won MVP, broke the American League home run record (before the season ended early due to a torn UCL), and played on the mound. He made 23 brilliant starts. What can a phenomenal slugger do when Freddie Freeman suddenly becomes a hitter from behind? What can a two-way superstar do when he suddenly doesn’t have to worry about pitching? The only thing that could stop Ohtani is former interpreter Ippei Mizuhara’s gambling scandal.
Players who need to step up: Mookie Betts. It will be difficult for one of the best players in the sport to improve, but he will need to work harder defensively. The player who moved from right field to second base this spring is now shortstop as Gavin Lux played out of position. He could be a bowling star Betts seems set on proving he can do it all.
Name you’ll know: Gavin Stone. The right-hander debuted in his unforgettable first year, allowing 31 earned runs in 31 innings. Stone, a top prospect, told reporters this spring that he threw all of last year, but the problem has been resolved. Due to injuries to the rotation, the organization’s No. 6 prospect will open the season as the No. 5 starter.
Biggest question mark: What will the rotation look like at the end of the year? There are big upside factors, but there are questions surrounding Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, James Paxton, and Stone. If the Dodgers don’t like the answers to these questions, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Emmett Sheehan and Dustin May, who are all expected to return from injury this season, emerge as potentially good arms. right.
How it falls: The Dodgers will win because they virtually always win, winning the division in 10 of 11 years. So many things can go wrong, and there’s still a chance the Dodgers win the National League West title. If the outrageous numbers pan out, it could threaten the Mariners’ record of 116 wins set in 2001.
2. San Francisco Giants
O/U win: 83.5
key player:Kyle Harrison. With Logan Webb, the top two players in last season’s National League Cy Young Award, and Blake Snell, who was signed in late spring, at the top of the rotation, the Giants’ pitching staff could be overwhelming. Can Harrison, the club’s top prospect who showed promise while getting a taste of major league life last season, develop into a destructive trio? If so, the Giants would have a way to shut down a division with a strong offensive line. Otherwise, there will be more pressure on Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray, who will return from injury at some point this year.
Players who need to step up: Jorge Soler. The last Giants player to hit 30 home runs in a season was Barry Bonds in 2004. Will Solar be able to break the curse? He had 36 RBIs for the Marlins last season and is the team’s best bet — and that comes after a season in which he was completely out of sorts, posting a .695 OPS. There are questions about which Soler the Giants will acquire, but at his best he is one of the most powerful hitters in the game.
Name you’ll know: Lee Jung Hoo. The former Japan star is a leadoff hitter and center fielder who liked the Giants enough to sign him to a six-year, $113 million contract. Lee, who idolized Ichiro Suzuki as a kid and expected him to be a contact-oriented pest who would trouble pitchers, would be important to reinvigorating a deep offense, if not a star player. .
the biggest question mark:Is the Giants’ offensive power sufficient? After another offseason where they missed out on big stars, the Giants replaced them with Lee, Soler and Matt Chapman. All are interesting players, but all come with some degree of variation. Same goes for Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, who are serviceable bats but haven’t consistently proven to be more than that.
How it falls: The Giants will have enough pitchers to stay in the wild-card race, if not the division race. If they can get to October, that rotation will be scary.
3. San Diego Padres
O/U win: 83.5
Key players: Fernando Tatis Jr. In his first season back from labrum surgery and PED suspension, the young star had solid numbers (.770 OPS, Gold Glove Award winner in right field), but nothing spectacular. . Can he return to the near-MVP level he reached in 2021 (.975 OPS)? Tatis is only 25 years old, carries more weight without Juan Soto, and faces the question of what to do after a disappointing and chaotic 2023. Will he be able to remember his greatness?
Players who need to step up: Dylan Stop. Their rotation, which also includes Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Michael King, is great, but there are few guarantees. Schiess is a similar example, a lights-out right-hander who finished second in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, but suffered a major setback last season with a 4.58 ERA in 33 games. If the Padres are going to turn things around, the Seas will have to do the same.
Name you’ll know: Jackson Merrill. Merrill, the Padres’ latest phenom who could make the leap to the majors at a young age, was a center fielder on Opening Day despite being only 20 years old and a natural shortstop. Merrill, a 2021 first-round pick, had a strong camp and earned a job at a position he hadn’t played before this spring.
Biggest question mark: Will Mike Shildt be able to control the clubhouse that Bob Melvin clearly cannot? After a disastrous 2023 that included reports of discord and a lack of accountability within the clubhouse, the Padres hired the former Cardinals manager. Even without Soto, there are plenty of star players like Tatis, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado who weren’t able to create a positive culture last season. Could silt fix that?
How it falls: Perhaps the quiet Padres are better than the noisy Padres. While all of the Southern California media attention is focused on Los Angeles, the Padres should at least have the offense and pitching to be a wild card candidate.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U win: 83.5
Key players: Corbin Carroll. For some reason, the 2023 Diamondbacks who made it to the World Series were a team with a below-average offense in the regular season. Their bats don’t crush teams. That means Carroll’s work has to be consistent and great. At 23 years old, he’s already a star and could blossom from Rookie of the Year to MVP candidate.
Players who need to step up: By Brandon Furt Arizona signed Eduardo Rodriguez to back up the excellent one-two punch of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but Rodriguez is out indefinitely with a lat strain. The rotation will likely focus on Puffert. Puffert’s rookie season was his best (in the postseason) and his worst (most of the regular season). Puffert had an 8.20 ERA at the end of July, but by the end of the season he had lowered it to 5.72, and emerged as an unlikely rotation savior in the postseason (3.27 ERA). Could he do it again?
Name you’ll know: Jordan Lawler. The top infield prospect made his brief debut last season despite appearing in just 16 games at Triple-A. The 21-year-old is attracting attention as a potential five-tool shortstop who can beat the power of minor league pitching and run amok on the bases. Arizona currently has no openings in the infield, but if Gerardo Perdomo struggles at shortstop, Lawler’s time could arrive.
Biggest question mark: The Diamondbacks are talented, young and suddenly have World Series experience. But will they be able to hang out in the heavily tiered divisions that include the Los Angeles giants? Arizona lost virtually no one this offseason, adding Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Joc Pederson, and Randal Grichuk.
How it falls: A year after shocking the world, the Diamondbacks will have to do it again. While Arizona made gains this winter, it was overshadowed by not being as dramatic as its divisional rivals. The wild card race is expected to last until the final day of the season, and the other candidates besides the Dodgers have a similar level of talent.
5. Colorado Rockies
O/U win: 60.5
Key players: Nolan Jones. Jones was a rare bright spot for the Rockies in 2023, winning the National League Rookie of the Year award as a flexible defender who settled in the outfield and as a breakthrough hitter with an OPS of .931 and 20 home runs in 106 games. Ta. It’s possible the Rockies will find an All-Star representative for the next few years.
Players who need to step up: Kris Bryant. Two seasons into his $182 million contract, the former Cubs star has yet to play more than 80 games in a campaign with the Rockies. Now 32 years old and coming off another disastrous injury-riddled season (.680 OPS), hopes that he can return to his former MVP status have waned. Can Bryant surprise and help the Rockies overcome their pitching issues?
Name you’ll know: Zach Veen. The 2020 first-round pick steadily rose through the Rockies’ system until wrist surgery cut short last year’s Double-A season after just 46 games. The top outfield prospect has pop and speed, and has recorded 12 home runs and 55 stolen bases in 2022, and if he has a healthy season at age 22, he could be on his way to the majors. be.
Biggest question mark: pitching. The Rockies will continue to score, as usual, and will have a hard time stopping opposing offenses, as they usually do. Can Kyle Freeland lower his ERA of 5.03 last season? Will Cal Quantrill be able to find his form after leaving the Guardians? Is Austin Gomber better than the 5.50 ERA he posted last year? Dakota Hudson and Ryan Feltner likely complete the worst rotation in baseball history.
How it falls: The Rockies lost 103 games last season and did little to improve in free agency. It’s hard to find a path to even mediocrity, and another 100-loss season may come.
