Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is receiving renewed attention Tuesday by announcing his selection of entrepreneur and lawyer Nicole Shanahan as his running mate.
The wealth of Mr. Shanahan (ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin) already supports Mr. Kennedy, in part because she paid for a Super Bowl ad supporting Mr. Kennedy’s candidacy. There are many things that can be mentioned.
Her generosity could also help solve the central problem facing Kennedy: how to get on the ballot in as many states as possible.
Candidates continue to insist that they can vote anywhere. So far, his campaign claims only four states meet the criteria. American Values, a super PAC supporting him, claims it has collected enough signatures to put him on four more ballots.
It is noteworthy that these eight states in total include four battleground states that are likely to decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada.
Virtually no one other than Kennedy’s most ardent supporters believes he has even the slightest chance of becoming the next president. Rather, the key question is whether he will hurt President Biden or former President Trump more.
For now, the answer is Biden, but it’s a close call and there are some caveats.
First and foremost, the majority of polls (both nationally and in key states) show that Trump’s advantage over Biden widens slightly when Kennedy’s name is included.
For example, polling averages maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk Headquarters show Mr. Trump narrowly leading Mr. Biden (about 0.5 percentage points) in a head-to-head matchup.
However, if Kennedy is listed as a candidate, the former president would have a two-point advantage over Biden.
The same pattern is seen in many state-level polls. A poll conducted last month by Emerson College in Michigan found that Trump gained 2 points when Kennedy’s name was not listed, and 4 points when he did. In Wisconsin, another Emerson poll showed Trump widening his lead from 3 points to 4 points when Kennedy was nominated.
Kennedy’s appeal to Democrats is pretty straightforward, starting with his last name.
The son of a former New York senator of the same name who was assassinated while running for president in 1968, and the nephew of former President Kennedy, he has a solid foundation of goodwill to fall back on. This is especially true for many voters who are not yet fully aware that many in the Kennedy family are opposed to his candidacy.
“The main reason is the Kennedy name,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk headquarters. “They see Kennedy’s name and think, ‘Well, I like Kennedy, but I don’t know if I’m passionate about Biden.'”
Kennedy has begun his 2024 campaign to win the Democratic Party’s nomination. Although his quest has gone nowhere, he remains in line with much of his party on environmental issues, raising the minimum wage, easing student loan debt and strengthening labor laws.
Also important, given widespread concerns about Mr. Biden’s age and ability to serve a second term effectively, Mr. Kennedy has fertile ground to cultivate among disgruntled Democrats. This means that there is good soil.
But that’s far from the whole story.
There is a clear contradiction at the heart of the polling against Kennedy.
Despite his apparent ability to increase his advantage, he is viewed far more favorably by Republicans than Democrats.
For example, a new Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday found that 52% of Republicans view Kennedy favorably, compared to just 25% of Democrats.
There are several possible reasons for this.
First, Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism resonates more strongly with conservatives than with liberals. The same is true, at least to some extent, of his views on the Ukraine war.
More generally, his criticism of Biden and his willingness to oppose him, as well as his rhetorical attacks on dubious forces in politics, the media, and the medical establishment, clearly have at least some overlap with the MAGA worldview.
Democrats and Mr. Biden’s allies have stepped up efforts in recent weeks to neutralize Mr. Kennedy’s threat.
Trump, meanwhile, slammed him in a social media post Wednesday morning, calling him “by far the most radical left-wing candidate in the race.”
But the former president continued one of his forays into election punditry, musing: [Biden]It would be a great service to America. ”
“I love it when he runs!” Trump concluded.
There are further questions about Kennedy’s influence on this year’s race.
As Tranter and other experts point out, third-party candidates receive significantly more votes because voters ask themselves tough questions about feasibility as they hover over their ballots. It is often below.
“People want to vote for the winner,” Tranter said.
This pattern could limit President Kennedy’s influence.
However, even if the polls do not reflect his current approval rating (about 10%), he could still be an important figure in an election that is expected to be close between both major parties. There is.
This is good news for Mr. Trump, despite some reservations.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
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