You can’t beat Houston with on-ball screens or post feeds. That’s not the case.
And that will be a problem for No. 4 Duke when it faces Houston, the South’s top-seeded team, in the Sweet 16 on Friday night (9:39 p.m. ET).
This is one of two NCAA Tournament games on my betting card for Friday.
duke vs houston odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| duke | +3.5 (+100) | +155 | o134.5 (-110) |
| houston | -3.5 (-120) | -190 | u134.5 (-110) |
Duke vs. Houston predictions
The Cougars’ aggressive blitzing defense sends two guys to the ball on every screen and aggressively rotates toward the paint on rim denial.
The nation’s best, most physical and talented defense ranks in the top five nationally in ball-screen PPP (0.59) and post-up PPP (0.62).
Duke’s offense, on the other hand, is built around Kyle Filipowski in the high post screen-and-roll game.
He is a good pick-and-pop and hard-roll player, but is most effective in the short-roll game, consistently attacking Duke’s perimeter shooters when the defense rotates toward Duke.
This was a big reason why Duke shot 40% from beyond the arc in ACC play this season.
Still, on-ball screens and post feeds can’t beat Houston.
If Duke can get the ball rolling in the high post, the Devils may be able to create enough chances to win on the perimeter, as they did on 50% 3-point shooting against James Madison.
However, it will be difficult to put the ball in the high post, especially since Duke is a finesse team that lacks physicality.
The Devils’ inability to play physically is why they lost to North Carolina twice this season and lost to Tennessee in last year’s NCAA Tournament.
They nearly met a similar fate in the first round against Vermont, where the defense was shaky in covering ball screens.
Still, the Catamounts have two physical defenders in Ireli Ayo-Farje and Shamir Bogues, who held Duke to just 64 points with a 0.92 PPP, and Filipovskiy was limited to just 3 points on one shot. I couldn’t score.
Just imagine what Houston would do.
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Duke vs. Houston picks
It’s unclear where the Cougars will generate their offense in this matchup, but I believe their defense will dominate and control Duke for 40 minutes to earn a convincing Sweet 16 victory.
Pick: Houston -3.5 (-120, BetMGM)
