Let’s take a look at what the 150th Kentucky Derby will look like.
1. Dornoch (20-1)
Jockey: Luis Saez
trainer: danny gargan
Current form: He took advantage of his fast speed to win three consecutive games, including the Fountain of Youth. In Bluegrass, he never made it to the front, finishing a flat fourth in Sierra Leone.
It’s worth the gamble. It’s one of his favorite winter books. We deserve better now because we were disappointed in the final preparations. Luis Saez has to get him off the rail quickly, which can take a toll on his stamina. Tired 5th place.
2. Sierra Leone (3-1)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
trainer: chad brown
Current form: A stretch run monster emerged from the clouds and dominated Risen Star and Blue Grass. It’s hard to load into the gate, and it doesn’t leave the gate very well either.
Worth the bet: Will Chad Brown ever win the Derby? I didn’t like the crowd noise at Keeneland, but I know where the finish line is. He ran inside to save ground and broke free on the backstretch to finish second.
3. Mystic Dan (20-1)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
trainer: kenny mcpeak
Current form: He won by eight lengths at Southwest Racecourse and was tied for third place in the Arkansas Derby behind disqualified jockey Bob Baffert’s Moose.
Worth the bet: Dan is your mud horse, so check the terms. He liked the southwest slope with the number 101 painted on it. It’s almost 6th place.
4. Seize freedom (8-1)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
trainer: brad cox
Current form: At Risen Star, it placed third behind Sierra Leone. He went 3/16 of a mile and came back from last of 11 horses to win the Louisiana Derby.
Worth the bet: It’s getting better with each race and we know he can go further. Freedom caught most of the speed horses and rose to fourth place.
5. Catalyst (30-1)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Current form: In the Florida Derby, he fought with Fierceness in the early stages, gave way in the middle, and held on for second place at 29-1, about 14 lengths behind. He had an easy race with one win in three races.
Worth the bet: Kataritic couldn’t score at Gulfstream and wasn’t sure if he wanted more ground. Rider was replaced by Jose Ortiz. Useless. A tiring 15th.
6. Just Steel (20-1)
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
trainer: D. Wayne Lucas
Current form: Muss and Mystic Dunn finished 32-1 in the Arkansas Derby, which they lost to Dunn in the rain-soaked Southwest.
Worth the bet: There would be no Derby without D. Wayne Lucas. There were 149 of them, and he ran 49 horses and won four. Let’s make it 4/50. 10th place in mid-pack.
7. Honor Marie (20-1)
Jockey: ben curtis
trainer: whit beckman
Current form: He chased from the beginning and finished an energetic 2nd place in the Louisiana Derby behind Catching Freedom. He was six dozen behind Sierra Leone in the previous Risen Star.
Worth the bet: Not the best stretch runner in this field. He won a Group 2 at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old and should finish 11th in a late start here.
8. Just a Touch (10-1)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
trainer: brad cox
Current form: This year, he is 0-for-2. He placed second in Gotham at Aqueduct and Bluegrass, and was late overtaken by a freight train named Sierra Leone.
Worth the bet: Fierceness isn’t fast, but he will be deployed up front and will be in the mix early. Wilts settled for 8th place.
10.TO password (10-1)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Current form: The Japanese stallion went 2-2 before being shipped to America. Both races, including the 225k, were contested on nine panels.
Worth the bet: The exhausted and desperate victors were the last to flee. He ran the half mile in 46.2 seconds at Churchill Downs, but he wasn’t convinced he wanted another furlong. The password is “pass”. 16th.
11. Forever Young (10-1)
Jockey: Ryusai Sakai
trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Current form: Another, more seasoned import from Japan. After winning the UAE Derby, he is 5-for-5, but his pace has slowed considerably over this distance.
Worth the bet: Remember Delma Sotogake and Mbutahiji? Of course not. They are the only two of the 19 UAE Derby winners to have lost badly at Churchill Downs. I need a clean trip. He doesn’t like having dirt and mud kicked in his face, so he means clean. Can he top Sierra Leone? winner.
12. Truck Phantom (20-1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
trainer: Steve Asmussen
Current form: After showing the way with Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, he watched Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom drift by.
Worth the bet: The speed is fast in this Derby track, and Steve Asmussen’s offspring will be placed at the front. I wear blinkers to help me stay focused. I don’t know if it makes a difference. Tired 12th.
13. Western Saratoga (50-1)
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
trainer: larry demeritt
Current form: Endless finished second with 36 wins and 1 loss in Jeff Ruby Steak, earning him a ticket to the Derby. He won the Iroquois Mile at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old, but has gone 4-0 since then.
Worth the bet: A tough scene. He’s not as fast as a speed horse, and he can’t kick like a late kicker. Perhaps West will be even better at Saratoga this summer. Last of 20.
14. Endless (30-1)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
trainer: michael mccarthy
Current form: Although he has won five out of six races, he has no experience racing on dirt. He is 3-2-2 on grass on synthetic surfaces, including Jeff Ruby Steaks.
Worth the bet: The connection was not reliable. But after a full run on JR, they give it a try. If you believe that the wild card will win, you will be rewarded. He’s in 14th place.
15.Domestic products (30-1)
Jockey: Airado Ortiz Jr.
trainer: chad brown
Current form: He showed power off the pace and eliminated all suspects in the Tampa Bay Derby. The figs were underwhelming.
Worth the bet: That was March 9th, so this horse is the most rested of all the horses. Tyler Gaffalione will remain in Sierra Leone and will be ridden by Irad Ortiz. Smart move. Checked in 13th place in an even race.
Kentucky Derby 2024 Betting: Everything You Need
16. Granmo the First (50-1)
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo
trainer: Victor Barboza
Current form: In the TB Derby, he came in 3rd place behind Domestic Product, and in the Florida Derby, he came in 3rd place behind Fierceness.
Worth the bet: The third-place pair earned enough derby points. The early races are the best, but so is more than half of this field. Grand Mo won’t be number one. How about the 18th?
17. Intensity (5-2)
Jockey: John Velasquez
trainer: tod plecher
Current form: In one word, it’s intense. In the Florida Derby, he took control from the start and never looked back, winning by more than a dozen lengths. He has started five games, but has never won two consecutive games.
Worth the bet: It feels so good to see you again. Mike Lepore, Todd Pletcher and John Velasquez have won some big races. The outside post is a plus, but will he be able to gain distance and record consecutive doubles? 3rd game.
18. Fortress (20-1)
Jockey: antonio fres
trainer: Phil D’Amato
Current form: Positioned just outside of Pacesetter, he won the Sunland and submerged Santa Anita Derby.
Worth the bet: They won by a game at Santa Anita, but weren’t impressed with the competition in those two prep games. We definitely need to step up here. I’m not sure he will. He is the 9th.
19. Resilience (20-1)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
trainer: Bill Mott
Current form: He finished 3¹/₂ behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star and then won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
Worth the bet: In the saddle was Hall of Famer Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado, who has recently won big races including the Saudi Cup. Last Wood horse to win the Derby: Funny Cide in his 2003. His seventh dog is resilient.
20. Working adults (50-1)
Jockey: frankie dettori
trainer: danny gargan
Current form: He ran Maiden Breaker at Wood Memorial and finished an amazing 106-1 second against Resilience.
Worth the bet: From the Aqueduct Maiden in March to the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May? Ridden by world-class jock Frankie Dettori. It’s not the last time, it’s the 19th.
21. Epic Ride (30-1)
Jockey: Adam Besitsa
trainer: John Ennis
Current form: He finished third in the Bluegrass with a record of 51 wins and one loss, about five lengths behind Sierra Leone.
Worth the bet: Encino pulled in when they bailed out. He was in the mix early, but made a stop and landed in 17th place.
