Is Trump on track to blow the election (again)?

Democrats are in a bit of a panic over President Donald Trump’s vote count against President Biden. The former president has been leading Biden in the election campaign. RealClearPolitics Poll Test His approval ratings have been high for months, consistently outperforming Biden in battleground states.

They shouldn’t panic. They should be celebrating.

Given how bad Biden’s fundamental numbers are in terms of approval ratings, leadership, age, and just about everything else, Trump should come out far better. Only Trump’s own weaknesses are keeping Biden and the Democrats in the game.

Biden’s bad calculations

Depending on the poll, Biden is at or near the worst of any first-term president since approval ratings began.

According to an average of 538, citations are interactive poll, Biden’s average was -17 points, the lowest of any first-term president. None of the other candidates who received negative support converted to positive support by Election Day or won re-election. gallup tracking Biden’s approval rating is a bit more approachable at 38%, better than Donald Trump and Jimmy Carter’s 34% at similar points in their respective terms.

of RealClearPolitics Approval As of this writing, Biden’s approval rating is -14 points, with an average approval rating of 41.3 percent.Latest Harvard University Harris PollBiden’s disapproval rating was only 44%, while his approval rating was 53%.and the latest YouGov pollis leaning towards Biden, with the incumbent president’s approval rating dropping 39% to 58%.

As if these numbers weren’t bad enough, his problem numbers are even worse. Inflation and immigration were the top two issues for voters in both Harris and YouGov polls. Biden’s approval ratings on both issues are worse than his overall approval ratings. According to YouGov, Biden’s approval rating on inflation is just 29%, with just 20% of independents, 27% of 18-29s and 31% of Hispanic voters. ing. Harris’ approval rating for Biden is 6 points lower than the overall approval rating on both immigration and inflation.

The desperate political turmoil that followed the State of the Union did nothing to allay public concerns about Biden’s age and leadership. 66% of Harris voters agree that Biden is too old (77% of independents), and 55% of voters doubt Biden’s mental capacity for the job (62% of independents) It becomes.

According to YouGov, 64% think Biden is a “very” or “somewhat” weak leader, while only 36% think he is a strong leader. The split among independents is 71% weak and 30% strong (numbers are over 100 due to rounding). Biden is being boosted only by reflexive Democratic support. YouGov has been polling on this issue since 2020, and Biden’s leadership numbers have consistently been weak, but now they’re worse than ever.

Overall, it’s no surprise that 59% of voters do not want Biden re-elected, including 66% of independents and 62% of Hispanics. Even two of the rock-solid constituencies Democrats rely on are weak for Biden, with 65 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds disapproving and just 46 percent of Black voters wanting him to run.

It seems highly unlikely that things will improve rapidly.Inflation continues stalking Prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates, which would hurt the economy and is likely to be lobbied hard by the Biden team. The current campus riots across the country are a disaster for Biden because his policies aren’t really policies at all. advise Israelis would like the problem to go away, but it is clear that it is not working. Harris’ recent poll shows that Americans are decidedly hawkish, with 78% wanting Hamas “removed from power” and 71% blaming Hamas for the current crisis. This includes the majority of all age groups. It is not a good idea to pander to the pseudo-revolutionaries in universities.

Democrats’ “trump card” against Trump – his various litigation cases — with little direct support. Both YouGov and Harris polls show little support for Trump, but Biden and the Democratic Party are also failing. In Harris’ poll, 57% think Democrats are using the legal system against Trump, including 31% of his own party members.

Trump’s Trial

Given Biden’s polls, Trump should be planning his inauguration. Instead, the average difference between her and him in national poll tests is less than two points.nevertheless he leads The average has yet to break the 50% mark in all battleground states. In the Great Lakes states, the average lead in each state is less than 2%.

First, President Trump remains unpopular. His net disapproval rating is still close to 9 points. RCP averageboosted by some favorable results for Rasmussen and Harris, but dropped nearly 11 points in the rankings. average 538. Trump had poor approval ratings throughout his presidential term (though not as bad as Biden). Just as the memory of his inflation persists, so too does the distaste for Trump.

While the current New York criminal trial is less damaging to President Trump, with only 32% of voters calling the charges “very serious,” a YouGov poll shows that a majority, including 51% of independents, still I think President Trump is guilty. Harris has consistently shown Trump’s best numbers in polls, with 53% of voters saying her various lawsuits make it impossible for her to run for president.

And this is what appears to be the anchor around President Trump’s neck: all the drama and trouble around him. Trump has made everything exhausting.Whether his constant rage [Trump] His insulting comic nightclub acts at social things, gatherings and circuses in general all annoy influential voters.Here’s why Nikki Haley will ‘end the chaos’ line resonated and revived her dead campaign (of course she could not Think of ways to build on that message).

This fear, captured only indirectly by polls, is keeping Mr. Biden in contention in a race he should have already lost. Even so, he has no real policy to combat inflation; refuse to act On immigration, his erratic, leaderless administration should be headed for a loss anyway — perhaps closer to it than necessary, but a loss nonetheless.

Biden’s ace in the hole is Trump himself. Trump ruined that election through lack of discipline and attention deficit disorder more than Biden won in 2020 (mis)management Impact of coronavirus. The idea of ​​Trump abandoning the next election is not bad. He’s already groping for an opportunity in a New York trial.

Rather than focusing on the failures of the Biden administration, Trump is spending most of his time trying to contain not only crime and immigration but also the (unpopular) student movement. whine About his own victimhood. He makes some caustic references to these issues that concern voters, but he never strays too far from himself.

Will voters simply wince at the spectacle, trials, abuse and victimhood of Trump and clear the way for Biden? It’s not a far-fetched guess for voters to think that a future Trump administration will do nothing about the issues that plague their lives and instead spend four years doing nothing. take revenge.

The bottom line is that Trump should be on track for an easy victory, but his character flaws are holding him back. He faces the weakest president since James Buchanan, but can Trump defeat it again?

Dr. Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Norton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. X Follow him at @KNaughton711.