Brewers vs. Cubs odds, prediction: MLB picks, best bets

The Brewers and Cardinals will reignite their NL Central rivalry with a four-game series beginning Thursday night in Milwaukee.

St. Louis was the preseason favorite to win the division, and Pecota’s prediction to win was 85.5, nine points ahead of fourth-place Milwaukee.

A month and a half into the season, the Brewers are effectively tied for first place with the Cubs, while the Cardinals are in familiar territory, finishing last in 2023.

Thursday’s pitching battle is set up well to target some of the best bets.

Cardinals vs. Brewers odds

Cardinals vs. Brewers predictions

(7:40 p.m. ET)

Above all, Brewers right-hander Tobias Myers has been solid since making his major league debut on April 23.

The first pitch he threw in the majors was supposed to be down and in, but it rose to waist height for Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen, sending a four-seamer over the left-field wall at PNC Park.

Myers, making his second start, allowed a home run to Aaron Judge in the first inning, but was ejected in the fifth inning after a three-run hit by Anthony Volpe.

And last Saturday, starting No. 3, leadoff batter Nico Horner hit Myers’ fourth into the left field seats at Wrigley Field. Two innings later, Christopher Morrell also caught him deep.

He started three MLB games, hit three home runs in the first inning, and hit five total home runs in just 13 innings pitched.

It follows Myers’ eight-year minor league career in which he hit 83 home runs, including 30 last year with Double-A Biloxi.

In his three starts in the major leagues, he was able to attack the zone and strike out several batters, but his command was not very good, especially in his last start against the Cubs.

Myers is only 25 years old, even though he has been in the minor leagues since 2016. Even if his stay in Milwaukee is short (he has filled in for an injury-plagued staff), he’s a great fit for the Brewers. Youth in this season.

St. Louis, on the other hand, entered the year relying on several players who were in the slump of their careers. So far, these veterans haven’t been able to do much, especially offensively.

As a team, the Cardinals slashed .218/.296/.340 with an OPS of .636. All four of these stats rank in the bottom five among 30 MLB teams.

Catcher Willson Contreras was the only player defending himself, but he broke his arm on a erratic play against the Mets on Tuesday and is currently on the disabled list.

Best bets for Cardinals vs. Brewers

Nolan Arenado hits a home run (+440, FanDuel)

Last year, the Cardinals hit 209 home runs, finishing in the top third of the league overall. However, their 26 deep shots are just one more than the last-place White Sox, so their power numbers will be significantly lower in 2024.

It would have been natural for Contreras to extend Tobias’ home run streak to four games. Before landing on the IL, he was hitting .280 and leading St. Louis with six home runs, including four in his last 13 games.

Arenado is 33 years old and is showing signs of serious slowdown, especially with his power going off a cliff. His hard-hit and barrel rates have dropped significantly, and his projected metrics mean he’s unlikely to improve much, if at all, going forward.

But he has destroyed the Brewers over the years with a slash line of 22 home runs and a career batting average of .307/.381/.617. He especially loves the park now called American His Family Field, where he has hit six home runs in the past three seasons.

All HR bets come with risk, but assuming Myers serves up one or more again, there’s some upside for a player who always hit hard in Milwaukee and still hits cutters at an elite rate. How about making some changes?

Myers, who throws a cutter 25 percent of the time, has been hit hard on the field, hitting two of his five home runs this season with pitches.

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Cardinals First 5 Innings Moneyline (-140, BetMGM)

Sonny Gray, who will start against the Brewers after Wednesday’s game against the Mets was postponed, has allowed just three earned runs this season and one in his first five innings.

He allowed two runs in a 2-0 win against the Brewers last month, but both came in the seventh inning, the third time on Milwaukee’s orders.

Myers’ early struggles are detailed above.

Cardinals first score (+210, DraftKings)

I’m hoping for a clean sheet from Gray, but it looks like Myers’ first-inning nerves are only going to get worse.

In last week’s game against the Cubs, he followed up his home run to Horner with four consecutive walks. Somehow he finished the inning with only two runs conceded.