Heading into the 2024 NFL season, the AFC East is a division filled with intrigue.
Take a look at each team’s DraftKings odds to win their division and Super Bowl and place your best bet.
AFC East Preview
Buffalo Bills (+160 division, 12/1 Super Bowl)
The Bills moved on from Stefon Diggs, but their succession plan is murky at best.
Buffalo drafted Keon Coleman in the second round, and it seems like they immediately trusted him to be their starting pitcher.
Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid are promising young players, but this pass-catching corps still has a lot of room for improvement.
Buffalo’s defense also lost cornerback Tre’Davious White and safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, leaving the secondary in a precarious position.
Second-round pick Cole Bishop will be asked to step into a starting role right away.
Josh Allen remains one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but the Bills had to pick up the pieces this offseason with multiple salary-cap injuries.
That leaves them in a precarious position heading into next season, and I’d like to see them move away from being the current favorites to win the division.
New York Jets (+200, 20/1)
Aaron Rodgers will be ready at the start of training camp and should provide a significant upgrade for a team that hasn’t had quality quarterback play in years.
Rodgers should be able to get better protection with the additions of tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses.
Both veterans have missed minutes in recent seasons, but the Jets added tackle Olu Fashanu in the first round and he should be able to start right away.
The Jets’ defense should continue to be elite after ranking third in EPA/play and fifth on special teams last season. The addition of Haason Reddick could also be a boon to an already impressive pass rush.
Rodgers will turn 41 in December, but betting on the MVP at odds of 28/1 is definitely appealing. I’m also intrigued to see the Jets win the Super Bowl on FanDuel on January 27th.
Miami Dolphins (+200, 22/1)
Eight of the 14 Dolphins players who played 500 or more defensive snaps last season are gone. The defense is expected to take a hit with the departure of DC Vic Fangio to the Eagles.
The offensive line includes elite players such as Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. After ranking fourth in EPA/play last season, which should be among the best in the league, Mike McDaniel remains one of the best play-callers in the sport.
However, OL starters Robert Hunt and Connor Williams were lost to free agency.
The Dolphins have had a tough time in games where throwing punches and attacking the defense doesn’t solve the problem.
The offense will put up big numbers in the fall, but as the weather gets colder, Miami will have to prove it can hold up against the elite teams it will face.
New England Patriots (+2500, 150/1)
The Patriots are entering a new era with first-year head coach Jerod Mayo and third overall draft pick Drake Mayo. However, the quarterback’s first season will be difficult with perhaps the worst combination of offensive line and receiver play in the league.
New England ranked eighth in defensive EPA last season and was solid against the run, ranking second in rush completion percentage allowed. But it’s fair to wonder if the defense will suffer with Bill Belichick gone.
The Patriots also have the second-hardest schedule. At 4.5 total wins, New England is not a serious threat to make the playoffs, much less win the division.
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Best bet for AFC East
Both the Bills and Dolphins lost key starters in free agency, so setbacks should be expected. Buffalo’s wide receiver room and transition in the secondary are a concern, while Miami’s defense could suffer after losing multiple starters and Fangio.
The Jets are the best team in this division, and I love giving them odds of 2-1 or better to win the AFC East. They also have the recipe for being a Super Bowl contender.
Bet: Jets to win AFC East (+200, DraftKings)
