PGA Championship 2024: Odds, predictions, value picks, analysis for Valhalla

This year’s PGA Championship is packed with intriguing storylines, starting with Tiger Woods’ return to Valhalla and whether Michael Brock can repeat his success at Oak Hill a year ago.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the odds-on favorite to win his second consecutive major title. This year’s PGA Championship comes just days after he and his wife, Meredith, gave birth to their first child.

Meanwhile, Brooks Koepka is aiming for his second consecutive Wanamaker Trophy. If he does, he would become the first player to win back-to-back major championships, having won the PGA Championship at Bellerive and Bethpage Black in 2018 and 2019.

And Rory McIlroy, fresh off a dominant win at the Wells Fargo Championship, will be looking to make it three straight and continue his success at Valhalla, where he won his last major in 2024.

Here are the current PGA Championship odds:

PGA Championship odds:

The current situation is as follows odds Brought to you by DraftKings to help players win:

• Scotty Scheffler +400
• Rory McIlroy +750
• Brooks Koepka +1200
• Xander Schauffele +1600
• Jon Rahm +1600
• Ludwig Oberg +1600
• Colin Morikawa +2200
• Bryson DeChambeau +2200
• Max Homa +3000
• Viktor Hovland +3500
• Patrick Cantlay +3500
• Joaquin Niemann +3500
• Cameron Smith +3500
• Wyndham Clark +4000
• Tommy Fleetwood +4000
• Justin Thomas +4000
• Cameron Young +4000
• Hideki Matsuyama +4500

PGA Championship Predictions

Of the four major championships, the PGA Championship fields the strongest field each year. All of the top players on the PGA Tour will be competing this week, as will his 15 players from LIV Golf.

As such, it’s a bit difficult to predict, but at over 7,600 yards, this golf course requires both distance and accuracy off the tee.

Valhalla has also been replaced Bentgrass fairway with Zoysiagrass Three years ago, courses became faster and firmer and the actual width of the fairways decreased. The club also removed the rough between the fairways and fairway bunkers, creating a style similar to British links courses, where drives that found short grass could easily roll into the sand.

Therefore, it is hoped that players with high accuracy on their tee shots will be successful this week.

Another close call for Xander Schauffele

After building a commanding lead at Quail Hollow, Xander Schauffele lost momentum over the weekend and settled for second place behind McIlroy.

The Aztecs, a former San Diego State University player, are used to finishing second. He has finished runner-up 14 times in his career, including two in the majors. Schauffele has recorded 12 top-10 finishes at major tournaments since his first major appearance in 2017, when he tied for fifth at the U.S. Open.

Photo by Ben Jared/PGA Tour via Getty Images

There are no weaknesses in his game, other than his ability to seal deals on the main stage.

Schauffele will probably play eventually, except he doesn’t get to win the Wanamaker Trophy. Instead, he will record his 13th top-10 finish in the majors, a DraftKings record of +150.

LIV Golf has 2 players in the top 10

No one would be surprised if Brooks Koepka wins his sixth major championship this week at Valhalla. He recently won the LIV Golf Singapore, but before the tournament he had expressed his dissatisfaction with his poor play at Augusta National.

Koepka will arrive at Louisville with a shoulder injury, a dangerous sentiment for the rest of the field. His ball-striking has returned to peak form over the past few weeks, and his game has also improved. That’s why I like Koepka to be in the top five at +330.

Photo by Jason Butler/Getty Images

However, another LIV golf star will be in the top 10.

Joaquin Niemann, a 25-year-old from Santiago, Chile, will score his first top 10 in a major this week. He missed the cut at Oak Hill last year, but tied for 23rd at Southern Hills, his best finish on the PGA. However, Niemann proved this season that he is one of LIV Golf’s best players. That, combined with his uncanny ability to shape the ball off the tee, will eventually put the Chilean in the top 10. DraftKings lists Niemann as a top-10 prospect at +300.

Justin Thomas fights at home

After a disastrous 2023 season, Justin Thomas bounced back somewhat in 2024. Granted, he missed out on the previous two major events, The Players and The Masters, but Thomas has three top-10s so far this season, including 2024 This includes the top five of the year. RBC Heritage.

After a solid first round at Quail Hollow, Thomas lost his form over the weekend and settled for a tie for 21st place at the Wells Fargo Championship. However, he ranks 11th on tour in strokes gained from tee to green.

With a rediscovered form and a home crowd cheering him on all week, Thomas will finish in the top 10 at +400 at Valhalla. This is his first top-10 finish in a major since defeating Will Zalatoris in a playoff at Southern Hills in 2022. .

Jordan Spieth falls far short of a Grand Slam

Ever since tournament officials disqualified Jordan Spieth from the Genesis Invitational for signing an incorrect scorecard, his performance has been poor at best.

He tied for 30th at Bay Hill, missed out on The Players and Valspar, but bounced back with a top-10 finish at the Valero Texas Open. However, he was hit on the 15th hole in the first round of the Masters, leading to another missed cut.

Getty Images

Spieth also missed the cut at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and fell short of championship contention at the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo Championship.

Poor iron play was the main reason for his struggles, but Spieth didn’t find the fairways very often. This season, he ranks 66th in driving accuracy percentage, finding short grass just 64.64% of the time. So even though Spieth would complete a Grand Slam if he wins, I’ll be avoiding Spieth this week.

Tiger Woods qualified

Perhaps the biggest question this week is Tiger Woods and whether the 15-time major champion can repeat his success at Valhalla in 2000.

That year, Woods defeated Bob May in the age-old showdown for his third consecutive major title.

Although the course has changed since then, Valhalla’s route has largely remained the same. Woods knows this golf course better than anyone, and that will prove invaluable as the week progresses. But while Woods’ ability to hit a golf ball around a major championship venue is no mystery, whether he can traverse the course itself is.

Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Valhalla doesn’t have the wild ups and downs of Augusta National, and Woods completed 72 holes at this year’s Masters. So I believe Woods will fight to qualify again this week, knowing that this Kentucky course doesn’t have the extreme slopes and hills of other courses.

Big Golf Courses, Celebrities, Big Stories

CBS Sports’ Dottie Pepper called Valhalla a “huge test” during a conference call with the media last week.

Moving away from that motif, we believe this big golf course will separate the best from the rest, create dramatic leaderboards filled with big names, and once again create big storylines.

Scottie Scheffler will be fighting again. Since finishing tied for fourth at the 2020 PGA Championship, Scheffler has seven top-10 finishes in addition to two green jackets. Even though he had a life-changing moment last weekend, it’s hard not to consider him because he’s such a good player from tee to green.

The odds also reflect that. Scheffler was +105 to break into the top 10 and +400 to win, which is ridiculously low.

Photo by Andrew Reddington/Getty Images

Scheffler has won four of five games since switching to a mallet putter at Bay Hill, and has the best chance of anyone to win again this week.

But Rory McIlroy had another great shot this week. Scheffler has won his last two starts despite being on the sideline in both games. Still, McIlroy won Valhalla in 2014. He hits the ball a country mile, he hits it better than anyone, and that’s the secret to his success on this golf course. He ranks first on the PGA Tour in total driving, which takes into account both distance and accuracy.

McIlroy will appear again on this big course, but the question is not whether he will fight, but whether he can break through again. McIlroy’s best bet is to finish in the top five at +175, as finishing in the top 10 won’t bring much return at -110.

PGA Championship Longshot Winner

If you’ve been watching the PGA Tour over the past two weeks, you’ve probably seen his name quietly lurking on the front page of the leaderboard.

Byung-hun Ahn, 31, who has yet to win on the PGA Tour, tied for fourth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and finished solo in third at Quail Hollow.

Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Like McIlroy, Anne also has a lot of power off the tee. He ranks 4th on tour in average mileage and 16th in total mileage. The Seoul, South Korean native also ranks 25th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy this season.

His short game is his weakness and a problem on any golf course. But Ann changed that story last week regarding Quail Hollow’s new greens. He was 91st in the tour rankings this season, but ranked first in the world in strokes gained putting.

Perhaps he discovered something with a flat stick, and if he continues to successfully roll rocks in Valhalla, Anne will be in contention. DraftKings currently gives you +5500 to win and +1100 to finish in the top five. The top 10 results will give you a +500 payout. All of them are worth trying out for players who have been attracting a lot of attention lately.

He also tied for 16th at Augusta National this year.

But if you’re looking to see who will win this week, check out who the Playing Through crew picked with our staff picks.

Check out all our other sports betting content here. SB Nation’s DraftKings site.

Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through.Be sure to check it out @_PlayingThrough Cover more golf. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko In the same way.