Pennsylvania’s top political analyst says the state is in the midst of major demographic and electoral changes that will likely favor Republicans. Republicans gained more than 10,000 new registrants in the past two months, according to the latest numbers released by the state.
As of mid-May, Republican registration in Pennsylvania has increased by about 11,000 people since March 29, according to an analysis of data from the Pennsylvania Department of State by news media outlets PoliticsPA and SpotlightPA. . Democratic registration decreased by about 4,600 people, and about 20,000 Democrats changed parties or decided to reregister as independents or third-party voters.
Until recently, Pennsylvania was known as a state where governors change positions every two terms, and has produced a diverse range of senators, from conservative Rick Santorum to the late Republican-turned-Democratic Arlen Specter. . Political strategists said the latest numbers show Republicans have much to celebrate in November, despite the recent Democratic advantage.
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro reversed the gubernatorial race trend in 2022 by defeating retired Army colonel and state Sen. Doug Mastriano to replace fellow Democrat Tom Wolf. Also, former President Trump was unable to repeat his 2016 upset victory against President Biden in 2020.
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A Pennsylvania welcome sign greets drivers on Route 222 entering Peach Bottom, Pennsylvania from Maryland in 2022. (Charlie Kreitz/Fox News)
But the numbers tell a truth, said Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania political strategist and former vice president of the American Conservative Union.
“Republicans have been catching up with Democrats for years in Pennsylvania, but now the margin is very small,” Gerow said, noting that Democrats once outnumbered Republicans in the state by 1 million people.
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Asked about recent Republican losses given Democrats’ declining registration advantage, Gerow said there’s a difference between campaigning and registration numbers.
“Good news for those wringing their hands.” [about the Democrats’ recent successes]. [With] Donald Trump and David McCormick, the Republican Party, will have a lot to celebrate. ”
Gerow predicts McCormick will defeat Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. He was elected in 2012, aided by the name recognition of his late father, former Gov. Robert P. Casey, a pro, and his popularity across the aisle, observers said. -life The Democratic Party’s namesake case of the landmark Planned Parenthood v. Casey case.
Philadelphia and its suburbs have seen an influx of moderate and liberal voters from the city who are turning against populist conservatism, but the state as a whole seems to be moving in favor of Republicans.
“The difference in registration between the two is important,” Gerow said. “What we’re seeing here is a huge demographic shift. The Republican Party is becoming more and more populist. The Democratic Party is becoming more and more elitist.”
Mastriano, who will face Shapiro in 2022, fox news digital He was encouraged by the latest statistics.
“The movement of multiple measures should not satisfy Democrats,” he said.
“Republican registration has increased significantly across the state and in heavily Democratic areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as Governor Shapiro’s strong push for automatic driver’s license registration. We’re getting even more support, which I don’t think Josh expected when he started this effort.”
While the major cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Allentown remain firmly in Democratic hands, one of several spreadsheets provided by the State Department shows that about 2,200 Philadelphia voters have turned Democratic so far this year. It is shown that the Republicans lost about 400 people.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro addresses media after casting his ballot at the Rydal Elementary School West polling place on November 8, 2022 in Rydal, Pennsylvania. (Mark Makela/Getty Images)
Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, lost just under 1,200 Democrats and 500 Republicans.
Once-solidly Democratic areas like Schuylkill County now lean Republican, and Trump especially flipped some blue-leaning areas like Luzerne and Northampton counties, home to Wilkes-Barre, in 2016. But Republicans have suffered recent losses in areas around Philadelphia that were once red counties, and middle-class Delaware County now leans solidly Democratic.
But overall, there are 3,894,593 registered Democrats and 3,504,984 registered Republicans in Pennsylvania, according to state data.
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State Sen. Jarrett Coleman, who represents Lehigh County, added that he thinks the narrowing registration gap shows public opinion is increasingly favoring Republicans.
”[It] “It’s the fact that Republicans are more focused on food issues, and that’s resonating with voters,” Coleman said. “The people I talk to are more concerned about being able to pay their bills and make ends meet. They’re put off by the Democrats’ relentless focus on social issues and making abortion the theme of every election.”
Sam Chen, a top Pennsylvania political analyst and professor at Northampton Community College in Bethlehem, said the recent trends are “great” for Republicans but “alarming” for Democrats.
Chen noted that Pennsylvania voters tend to split their votes.
“In 2016, Donald Trump won the presidential election and Pat Toomey won the U.S. Senate, but every House election since then has been won by Democrats,” Chen said. He added that these changes in voter registration “may slow down,” but that doesn’t mean all “new” Republicans will automatically support Trump or McCormick.
He argued that while some try to distinguish between conservative and moderate Republicans, the real variable is the difference between populists and non-populists, regardless of party.
At the same time, Chen said, there’s a populist side to the party that voters of former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who has long been well-respected and has not been afraid to criticize President Trump at times, may not support. Chen then added that, regardless of the net gain or loss, part of the big drop in party registrations is likely due to voters’ disgust with the political establishment as a whole.
“They’re not necessarily conservative or moderate or populist,” Chen said. “They may just be jaded and feel like they don’t belong in their party.”
A State Department official who provided data for this article declined to comment.
