Senate seats most likely to flip

With less than six months until Election Day, Republicans are increasingly optimistic they can topple an incumbent who is finishing up a four-year term as the Senate minority leader and who Democrats are counting on to take control.

Republican leaders are quick to point out that a near-certain win in West Virginia, plus two other ruby ​​red states and a host of purple states within reach, would be all it takes to get Republicans one win away.

Yet after failures in each of the past two election cycles, they are publicly downplaying that confidence.

“We never said it would be easy,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said last week.

Here are 10 Senate seats that could flip later this year.

West Virginia

Simply put, unless something dramatic happens, West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R-WVa.) will succeed retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVa.) next year. The only question is how big a win he’ll have.

Montana

The Big Sky race is one of the most crucial on the map, with Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and businessman Tim Sheehy locked in a tight battle to the finish.

Tester has sought to portray himself as bona fide on the border as it remains a top concern and potential headache in his efforts to win over supporters of former President Trump, who won the state by more than 16 points.

Republicans have run ads on the issue, the three-term senator has clashed with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in recent weeks over “unacceptable” conditions at the border, was the first Democrat to sponsor the Republican-sponsored Laken Riley bill (albeit voting against it as an amendment), and voted in favor of a bipartisan border bill introduced by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

Whether that’s enough to overcome prevailing notions of Democrats and the border is an open question.

“Few Democrats take border security as seriously as Jon Tester, but he and other battleground state Democrats are fighting an uphill political battle given the Democrats’ abysmal reputation on the issue,” said John LaBombard, a Democratic strategist at Rock Solutions and a former top adviser to Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (Independent, Arizona) and Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).

“Any opportunity to remind voters of his record and his independence from his party’s base on these issues will help him win by a narrow margin,” LaBombard said. “And in this race, the narrow margins are going to matter.”

Ohio

The other undisputed race for the top spot is in the Buckeye State, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is trying to walk a tightrope to defeat Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno and secure a fourth term.

Even as Ohio has shifted to the right under Trump, Brown remains one of the few people highly regarded by Democrats. March poll Brown maintained a double-digit net approval rating, signaling his lead in what was once one of the nation’s most prominent battleground states.

But the national political environment is not favorable for Brown this year: Democratic activists expect Biden’s support in the state to fall by at least 8 percentage points and possibly by double digits, creating a big hurdle for Brown and requiring hundreds of thousands of vote-splitting lawmakers.

For now, Brown’s strategy is focused on using big money to undermine Moreno, and one Democrat noted that not much is known about the Republican candidate beyond Trump’s endorsement of him.

Despite the state turning redder each year, Republicans know it will be a tough fight in November.

“It’s going to be a tough fight. He’s a popular incumbent and everybody knows him,” said Sen. J.D. Vance, a Republican from Ohio. “I think Bernie will win, but it won’t be an easy fight.”

Pennsylvania

When asked recently about states Republicans are targeting, McConnell mentioned Pennsylvania, where Republicans are counting on Sen. David McCormick to defeat Democratic Sen. Bob Casey.

Republicans largely agree that McCormick is doing everything he can to win the November election and that actually defeating Casey, the scion of one of the state’s most powerful political families, will be one of the election’s toughest challenges.

“He’s doing everything right. He’s running the campaign he should have run in his first campaign. [Mehmet Oz]”He’s been smart about actually raising money instead of self-funding, and most importantly, he’s very visible,” said a Pennsylvania Republican strategist.

Republicans worry that all Casey needs to win is to make no mistakes — with a GOP strategist in the state saying Casey is “Teflon” and “nothing sticks to it.” Republicans are increasingly convinced that the most likely way for McCormick to win is for Biden to hit rock bottom before November.

According to a Pennsylvania-based Republican activist, internal statewide polling shows Democrats leading Republicans in lower-district races, including at the local and congressional levels.

“But the one thing that remains constant is that Biden is underwater everywhere,” they added.

Nevada

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada) is facing nationwide upheaval in her bid for a second term.

Rosen, a first-term senator, has long been considered a formidable opponent for Republicans. With little to effectively attack her personally, Republicans have had to tie her to a larger Democratic cause and hope the political environment will be a winning one. And they may get their wish this term.

“The Southwestern states are feeling the economic pain more than anywhere else,” the Democratic activist said, “and it’s unclear what the Biden team is going to do to change that.”

With most polls in the state showing a close race between the top candidates, with Trump holding a slim lead over Biden or in a deadlock, the question is whether Trump can help Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown make a breakthrough in the Senate race.

Brown, who won overwhelming support in the state’s Republican primary in June and has the backing of national Republicans, recently New York Times/Siena College Poll The second poll showed the race was tied, but Emerson College/The Hill It shows Rosen has an eight-point advantage.

Arizona

Arizona has had a tumultuous past few months, with Republican Kali Lake’s fortunes plummeting after Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) gained an early lead in the key battleground state.

Lake, who lost the 2022 gubernatorial election, has had a tumultuous few months in recent years, with abortion a key issue in his 2024 campaign. Lake criticized state officials for not enforcing a Civil War-era abortion ban that was reinstated by the Arizona Supreme Court (and later overturned by the state legislature) despite initially calling for its repeal.

She’s also lagging behind in radio and has been unable to keep up with Gallego’s fundraising — he raised $7.5 million in the first quarter to Lake’s $3.6 million — and Lake continues to struggle to win over moderate Republicans and independents.

Multiple polls have suggested Gallego is the favorite to replace Sinema, who has decided not to run for a second term, and a CBS News/Noble Predictive Insights poll showed Gallego leading Lake by 13 and 10 points, respectively.

Michigan

Both parties are keeping their eyes on Michigan as Republicans seek to win the Senate for the first time in more than two decades.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) A little favorite He will replace Sen. Debbie Stabenow (R-Mich.), the No. 3 Senate Democrat, who is retiring after four terms. But Republicans are going all out, successfully recruiting former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.). In the decade since Rogers left the House, party officials have tried, and failed, to recruit him.

Rogers has broad institutional backing, including the endorsement of President Trump and the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, but Michigan’s primary isn’t until August, leaving the door slightly open for a challenge from businessman Sandy Pensler, who has yet to mount a challenge.

be Emerson College/The Hill Poll In last month’s primary election, Rogers held a commanding lead over a field of candidates that included former Rep. Justin Amash (Independent, R-Mich.).

The race remains a tough one for Republicans given the state’s situation, but Democrats will be watching to see how much national Republican groups pour into the race in the coming months in an effort to stave off Slotkin’s support, as well as how money from both parties flows in and out of the state.

“Where will the map move late in the campaign? Slotkin is the favorite, but in past campaigns we’ve seen swing states on the fringes move in and out of the running late in the campaign,” a senior Democratic official said. “If Ohio and Montana are out of reach for Democrats, will Republicans get greedy and try to pick up states like Michigan?”

Wisconsin

The past few months have not been easy for Eric Hovde.

Hovde, the leading Republican candidate set to face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) in November, is at a multiple early disadvantage.

The wealthy businessman found himself in hot water last month when he said seniors in nursing homes have “five or six months to live” and that “very few nursing home residents can vote.” Democrats quickly pounced, with Baldwin saying Hovde “has no idea what he’s talking about.”

Hovde is also trailing in early polls, with five surveys released since mid-April showing Baldwin leading by between 3 and 13 percentage points.

“He needs to win every month, and he hasn’t won once yet,” a senior Republican National Committee official said.

But Baldwin is far from out of the woods: She, like many of the candidates on this list, is battling Biden’s influence, but so far she’s trailing him by a wide margin in what is likely to be the most competitive race of the year.

Maryland

Democrats are breathing relief after Prince George’s County Mayor Angela Alsobrooks (D-Prince George’s), defeated Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) in what was one of the bloodiest primaries for either side.

But the left’s work isn’t over yet: Alsobrooks is set to face former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R) in November.

Democrats are clearly in control given the state’s deep blue base — Biden won it by 32 percentage points four years ago, the third-largest margin of victory of any state he has won — but Democrats aren’t underestimating Hogan, the mega-popular man who commanded huge approval ratings during his eight years in Annapolis.

Still, Democratic leaders remain confident.

“She’s going to beat Trump. She’s going to win this election, absolutely,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told The Hill. “But it’s going to be a tough fight and she’s not going to take anything for granted. None of us are taking anything for granted in this fight.”

Hogan has made waves in recent weeks by declaring himself pro-life and saying abortion rights should be legalized, a move Democrats have criticized as a complete change of stance.

“Now people are asking, ‘Which Larry Hogan am I talking about today?'” Van Hollen said.

Texas

This has become a familiar loop: A much-derided Republican senator runs for reelection in a Republican-leaning state, and Democrats and progressives pour money into the state to defeat them.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) was subject to such pressure six years ago, but survived a real challenge from former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas). Now Democrats are trying again with Rep. Collin Allred (D-Texas).

Despite the high expectations, Cruz remains the favorite to win a third term, and his supporters see little in common between his 2018 opponent and the Democrats trying to unseat him this time.

“Beto fantasized about himself as the next John F. Kennedy, and he promoted that image heavily,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).[O’Rourke] It was like the next coolest thing, and I don’t think Allred has that.”