According to Steven Suttmeyer, technical research strategist at Bank of America, the S&P 500’s strong first 100 trading days of 2024 bodes well for the rest of the year. As of May 23, the 100th trading day of 2024, the S&P 500 had risen more than 10% this year. This was the best first 100 days of a broad market index in an election year since 1928, Suttmeyer said. Election years are typically weaker, he said in a report. .SPX YTD Mountain S&P 500 YTD Historically, when the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in the first 100 days of the year, there is a 76% chance that the index will rise for the rest of the year, the strategist said. In this case, the average return is 7.1%, with an even higher average return of 9.3%. “Success breeds success,” Suttmeyer wrote in a Friday note. He added that investors have even more reason to be bullish. If the first 100 days of an election year are strong, there’s a 93% chance that the S&P 500 will rise for the rest of the year. In this scenario, the return would be 10.1%, with an average return of 8.9%. “The SPX tends to rise in the summer, and in presidential election years we see big summer rallies,” Suttmeyer said. “June-August is the second-strongest three-month period of the year since 1928, with the SPX rising 65% of the time and an average return of 3.2%.” But in presidential election years, the S&P 500 rises 75% of the time from June to August, with an average return of 7.3%. If that pattern continues in 2024, Bank of America said, the S&P 500 would reach 5,650 just before Labor Day, based on closing prices on May 23. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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