A 2024 election poll released Thursday shows President Biden leading former President Donald Trump in heavily Democratic New York, but by just single digits.
New Yorkers favor Biden over Trump by seven points (48% to 41%) in a head-to-head race, according to an Emerson College Poll/The Hill/PIX11. Investigation result.
The 81-year-old president’s lead widened to 10 points in the Empire State, when 12% of undecided voters were asked which candidate they would vote for.
Trump, 77, garnered 44% of the support in elections featuring third-party candidates, compared with Biden’s 38%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of the Emerson College Poll, noted that independents in New York support Trump by a significant margin.
“Exit polls showed that New York’s traditionally Democratic independent voters switched to Trump by a 10-point margin, 43 percent to 33 percent,” Kimball said in a statement.
The last time a Republican presidential candidate won a general election in New York state was in 1984, when former President Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale by eight points.
In 2016, Trump lost New York state to Hillary Clinton by 22.5 percentage points, and in 2020, Biden defeated the former president in New York state by 23.2 percentage points.
Last week, the Republican front-runner held his first campaign rally in his home state of New York since 2016.
A police source told The Washington Post that the event in the South Bronx was permitted to have 3,500 attendees but drew a crowd of 8,000 to 10,000.
While the rally was not as large as Trump’s Wildwood, New Jersey, rally three weeks ago, which drew about 100,000 people, a Trump campaign official said it was meant to show Trump was “not afraid” to hold a rally in traditionally Democratic areas.
The Emerson College poll was conducted May 28-29 among 1,000 New York voters and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
