The best time to sign a bona fide NFL superstar is right now. It’s always right now. With each passing hour, day, and month, the cost of acquiring a game-changing player becomes more and more expensive.
So far, the Vikings have stalled tiresomely on a contract extension with receiver Justin Jefferson, something Jefferson definitely wants. Reports have repeatedly said talks are “close” or “coming soon,” but nothing has materialized so far. A move this month would only complicate things. Minnesota is repeating the Cowboys’ mistakes, and it will come back to bite them later.
The math here is pretty simple: Jefferson is the best receiver in the NFL and he wants to be paid what the best receiver in the NFL deserves. He knows his value and has legitimate expectations. The Vikings will loosen their purse strings..
“I want to be part of an organization that is willing to spend big money and want me and will reward me accordingly. I think ultimately the Vikings will do what it takes to get me on their team, but at this point I don’t know.”
At the time, that was assumed to mean a contract with an average annual value (AAV) of over $30 million, based on the largest receiver contract at the time being Tyreek Hill’s, but the wide receiver market has been in turmoil since late May, which will have a major impact on Jefferson’s salary projections.
It would have been pretty easy to project the receiver’s deal if the deal had been made in February. A three-year, $100 million deal with more than $80 million guaranteed would have been a handy, round amount that would have shaken up the market and guaranteed Jefferson another extension at the peak of his career.
The league’s biggest stars are betting on themselves, and their agents are well aware that the salary cap isn’t going to come down anytime soon, which is why top stars are more likely to seek three-year deals rather than five, especially if they’ll re-enter the free-agent market before they turn 30.
There is currently a big problem projecting Jefferson’s contract demands, and that comes from three key players (all of whom are newly signed).
- AJ Brown (Eagles): 3 years, $96 million, $84 million guaranteed
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions): 4 years, $120 million, $77 million guaranteed
- Jaylen Waddle (Dolphin): 3 years, $84.7 million — $76 million guaranteed
The Brown deal reset the average annual contract value for wide receivers to $32 million, but the St. Brown and Waddle deals showed that teams are willing to pay guaranteed money even if a receiver has only had one truly elite season.
That’s great news for Justin Jefferson, but bad news for the Vikings’ salary cap: Here’s a guy with AJ Brown’s numbers, but he’s been in the league a year less and is two years younger.
The definition of “bankruptcy” has changed, and hard numbers now loom large.
3 years, $120 million, $100 million guaranteed
Triple-figure guarantees are big — Myles Garrett is the only non-quarterback to make that amount — and what Jefferson is looking for would be a landmark receiver contract. The money is important, but it’s even more important from a perception standpoint for Jefferson, and the money he needs to incentivize him to endure a rebuild.
Admittedly, the Vikings shot themselves in the foot by waiting. Jefferson’s abilities haven’t fundamentally changed over the past 12 months, but overspending on Kirk Cousins tied their hands. As a result, they’ll have to overpay at the WR position, eating into the massive cap savings they gained by signing JJ McCarthy on a rookie QB’s contract.
This isn’t the end of the world, but it’s the same mistake the Cowboys made with CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons and especially Dak Prescott, all of whom seem destined to create major headaches for the team’s cap future by failing to sign before it was too late.
A Jefferson extension would be a big blow at this point, but it’s never going to hurt any less than it does now. It’s time to rip off the band-aid and get it done.
